2021 TOP 100 PROSPECTS
My Noble Attempt at Identifying the Best 100 Prospects in This Year's Draft.
If there’s one thing people should take away about how to “win” the NFL draft, it’s this quote from Eric DeCosta:
“We’re probably had the most picks over that span,”…”I Look at the draft and in many ways, I’d have to say, it’s a luck-driven process. If you have more picks, you’re going to hit on more good players.”
No matter how much time and effort teams put into scouting, the draft is always going to be a crapshoot. Teams get into trouble when they think the biggest market inefficiency is their unique ability to identify talent. It’s why teams like the Raiders and Giants are making desperation free agent signings every offseason while Baltimore and New England accumulate compensation picks and playoff spots. The best strategy teams can follow over the long run is to trade back and acquire as many picks as possible, and select players from a consensus draft board.
However-there is no fun in that! Since I’ll definitely be criticizing teams for their picks, I think it’s only fair that I put out official rankings that can be scrutinized and made fun of.
For this exercise, I broke out the players into six tiers. They are:
· Tier 1: no brainer first-round prospect; future pro bowler
· Tier 2: solid first-round prospect; solid NFL starter.
· Tier 3: Second-round prospect; Low-ceiling starter, developmental starter or overqualified backup.
· Tier 4: Late second/early third round prospect; ceiling=NFL Starter, Floor=bust
· Tier 5: Third-round prospect; Hopeful starter but probably backup/quality special teams contributor.
· Tier 6: Late third/early fourth-round prospect; High quality backup but can be a spot starter or rotational piece.
With that said, here are my official top 100 prospects of the 2021 draft, as well as a brief blurb on picks that I felt required explanation.
Tier 1:
1. Trevor Lawrence; QB Clemson; QB1
Not exactly going out on a limb here. He’s not flawless, but he’s pretty damn special.
2. Kyle Pitts; TE Florida; TE1
Speaking of special, Pitts’ tape is jaw-dropping. The only things that can prevent him from being a top five tight end are injuries or a bad scheme.
3. Penei Sewell; OT Oregon; OT1
Apparently, Sewell vs. Rashawn Slater is a debate among some NFL teams, but I don’t see it. Sewell was manhandling defensive linemen at age 18-imagine how good he is going to be in a few years.
4. Ja’Marr Chase; WR LSU; WR1
While taking a wide receiver in the top ten is usually a bad strategy, I have no problem with teams making an exception for Chase. He’s the best wide receiver prospect to come out since Amari Cooper. He was a good deal better than Justin Jefferson at LSU-who only had the best rookie wide receiver season of all time.
5. Justin Fields; QB Ohio State; QB2
Justin Fields is almost as good as Trevor Lawrence. He may even have a higher ceiling. If you’re not drafting him because you don’t think he throws past his first read enough (which is a false narrative) then you probably shouldn’t be in the quarterback evaluation business.
6. Zach Wilson; QB BYU; QB3
I think there are some legitimate concerns about Wilson. Contrary to popular belief, he doesn’t have the strongest arm. Additionally, he struggled in 2019 against better teams and he played in an offense that was built to hide his deficiencies. Having said that, he’s still very good. Smart teams should try and hide their quarterback’s deficiencies and build their offense around what he can do, and there aren’t a lot of quarterbacks who can do the things Wilson can on a football field.
7. Micah Parsons; LB Penn State;LB1
Putting character concerns aside, the only question surrounding Parsons will be how he holds up in pass coverage. Given his athleticism and football IQ, I’m guessing he figures it out. Parsons is a stud, and he will soon join players like Roquan Smith and Devin White as a new generation of great middle linebackers.
8. Rashawn Slater; OT Northwestern; OT2
Whether he ends up at tackle, guard or even center, Slater is going to be a great player in the NFL. No need to add much more than that.
9. Jaylen Waddle; WR Alabama; WR2
The Waddle vs. DeVonta Smith debate is a fun debate to have on twitter, but the truth is they are both tier one receiver prospects. I gave Waddle the edge because he has elite physical traits (speed and agility) that Smith doesn’t have. I also think Waddle will be an all-pro return man, which increases his value.
10. Trey Lance; QB North Dakota State; QB4
It’s easy to fall in love watching Lance tape, and he could definitely end up being the best quarterback in this class. It’s just hard for me to rank him any higher than this given his lack of experience.
11. Patrick Surtain II; CB Alabama; CB1
For a position that is very hard to project at the next level, Surtain feels like one of the safest bets. He’s been a shutdown corner in the toughest conference in college football and has a high football IQ. It’s hard to picture Surtain being a bust.
12. DeVonta Smith; WR Alabama; WR3
Smith’s size is something to legitimately be concerned about.There’s just never been a truly dominant wide receiver at his weight. The thing is, if he’s not taken inside the top ten, then he doesn’t need to be dominant. If Smith is just a great number two wide receiver, and I think he will be, then you’re still getting good value out of your first-round selection.
13. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah; LB Notre Dame; LB2
I have Owuso-Koramoah listed as a linebacker, but he’s really more of a hybrid player in the mold of Isaiah Simmons, Jeremy Chinn or Jamaal Adams. As long as the team that drafts him deploys him correctly, he’s going to have a long, productive career in the NFL.
14. Caleb Farley; CB Virginia Tech; CB2
Farley really belongs in a tier by himself. If he were healthy, he would be my top defensive player and a top seven prospect. The way Farley can move and shadow defenders at his size is incredible for a cornerback. Yet, given his back, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t make it to his second contract. The fact that I still have him at 14 tells you how good I think he is.
Tier 2
15. Jaelan Phillips; Edge Miami; Edge1
Phillips is in a similar spot as Farley. On tape alone, this is far-and-away the best edge rusher in the draft. Yet we’re talking about a player that had retired from football only two years ago. I’d be willing to take a flyer on Phillips anywhere after the top ten, but I’d have to be prepared that he may be one concussion away from retiring from football again.
16. Rashod Bateman; WR Minnesota; WR4
Bateman is a pound-the-desk player for me. If you’re sliding him down draft boards because of his 2020 season-a season that he wasn’t originally supposed to play while recovering from a serious bout of covid- then you’re missing out on an elite wide receiver prospect.
17. Trevon Moehrig; S TCU; S1
18. Alijah Vera-Tucker; IOL USC; IOL1
19. Jaycee Horn; CB South Carolina; CB3
Horn’s ascension up consensus draft boards has been surprising. I like his athleticism and think he’s a legit first-round pick, but he is going to have to change his style of play in the NFL or he’s going to be called for holding on every play. I love his attitude and would want him on my team-I just wouldn’t take him in the top ten, as some people have projected.
20. Christian Darrisaw; OT Virginia Tech; OT3
21. Greg Newsome II; CB Northwestern; CB4
22. Teven Jenkins; OT Oklahoma State; OT4
23. Landon Dickerson; IOL Alabama; IOL2
If you could guarantee me that he’d be healthy, then I’d have no problem with a team taking Dickerson in the top ten. His tape is that dominant.
24. Azeez Ojulari; Edge Georgia; Edge2
25. Zaven Collins; Linebacker Tulsa; LB3
26. Kwity Paye; Edge Michigan; Edge3
Tier 3
27. Liam Eichenberg; OT Notre Dame; OT5
Another player that I’m higher on than most. I understand the concerns about his size, but a three-year starter at left tackle for the best offensive line program in the country seems like a good harbinger for NFL success. Even if he didn’t play at Notre Dame, Eichenberg’s tape shows a solid, pro-ready prospect, even if he doesn’t have the upside of some of the tackles ranked ahead of him.
28. Terrace Marshall Jr.; WR LSU; WR5
29. Najee Harris; RB Alabama; RB1
30. Creed Humphrey; IOL Oklahoma; IOL3
While not on the same level as Dickerson, Humphrey’s tape in college is awfully impressive. Given Dickerson’s health uncertainty, there’s a good chance he ends up being the best center from this draft class.
31. Rondale Moore; WR Purdue; WR6
A fun draft storyline I will be paying close attention to is what order Kadarius Toney,Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore get selected. While his health is a concern, Rondale would be my first pick. He had one of the greatest freshman wide receiver seasons ever and if health wasn’t an issue, we’d be talking about him the same way we talk about Jalen Waddle.
32. Christian Barmore; IDL Alabama; IDL1
33. Elijah Moore; WR Ole Miss; WR7
34. Nick Bolton; LB Missouri; LB4
35. Mac Jones; QB Alabama; QB5
I don’t think there’s much else to add about Jones that hasn’t already been said. If San Francisco does end up taking him with the third pick, given all the capital that they gave up to acquire the pick, it will be one of the worst draft picks of the last twenty years.
36. Travis Etienne; RB Clemson; RB2
37. Asante Samuel Jr; CB Alabama; CB5
Samuel might be the best prospect that isn’t getting any hype. He’s not the biggest player in the draft, but everything else about him is elite. He has great ball skills, can play in any scheme, and is a surprisingly strong tackler. He shouldn’t fall below pick 40.
38. Kadarius Toney; WR Florida; WR8
39. Javonte Williams; RB North Carolina; RB3
40. Alex Leatherwood; OT Alabama; OT6
41. Samuel Cosmi; OT Texas; OT7
Tier 4:
42. Carlos Basham Jr.; Edge Wake Forest; Edge4
43. Elijah Molden; CB Washington; CB6
44. Jayson Oweh; Edge Penn State; Edge5
45. Wyatt Davis; IOL Ohio State; IOL4
46. Pat Freiermuth; TE Penn State; TE2
Davis and Freiermuth are two Big Ten prospects whose draft stock has dropped throughout the process due to lackluster 2020 seasons. They’re also both victims of lofty expectations-they’re getting dinged for not necessarily being the dominant players that some projected they would be coming out of high school. If teams are just looking for two solid starters with second-round picks, you could do a lot worse than these two.
47. Gregory Rousseau; Edge Miami; Edge6
48. Joe Tryon; Edge Washington; Edge7
49. Ronnie Perkins; Edge Oklahoma; Edge8
50. Joseph Ossai; Edge Texas; Edge9
I have no idea how to rank these four edge rushers. Ossai and Perkins have great motors, but both players are raw and lack the ideal size to be a dominant edge rusher. Tryon has the size and has impressive film, but he’s going to be a project. If the team drafting him expects him to be dominant right away, they’re going to be in for a rude awakening.
As for Rousseau, I don’t remember ever seeing a prospect like him before. On one hand, 15.5 sacks are 15.5 sacks-you never see that type of production in college. However, most of those sacks occurred when he was lined up on the inside and he just blowing past college guards. Life’s going to be a lot harder for him in the NFL, and he doesn’t have any reliable pass-rush move. His talent his undeniable but I just have no idea how he projects at the next level. He’d be a stay-away for me.
51. Dyami Brown; WR North Carolina; WR9
52. Daviyon Nixon; IDL Iowa; IDL2
53. Quinn Meinerz; IOL Wisconsin-Whitewater; IOL5
54. Dillon Radunz; OT North Dakota State; OT8
55. Jevon Holland; S Oregon; S2
56. Baron Browning; LB Ohio State; LB5
57. Eric Stokes; CB Georgia; CB7
Stokes and fellow Georgia corner Tyson Campbell are two of my toughest projections. Both are great athletes but neither player had the production you would want out of a first-round corner. If you’re trying to draft Stokes to play him as a man-corner you’d be making a huge mistake. Let him play in cover 2 where he can use his athleticism and anticipation skills to jump some passes and hopefully make some game changing turnovers.
58. Levi Onwuzurike; IDL Washington; IDL3
59. Michael Carter; RB North Carolina; RB4
60. Amon-Ra St. Brown; WR USC; WR10
St. Brown is another pound-the-desk guy. He’s not the biggest, fastest or strongest wide receiver, but he’s going to be one of the most productive. Put him in the slot and let him catch 80 balls a year-for the next 10 seasons.
61. Chazz Surratt; LB North Carolina; LB6
62. Jamin Davis; LB Kentucky; LB7
Wrote about my concerns about Davis earlier this month and those concerns have only been exacerbated now that it appears he’s getting serious first-round consideration.
63. Jabril Cox; LB LSU; LB8
Tier 5
64. Ifeatu Melifonwu; CB Syracuse; CB8
65. Payton Turner; Edge Houston; Edge10
66. Tommy Togiai; IDL Ohio State; IDL4
In a week interior defensive line class, Togiai stands out. He can play three or five technique (in other words, line up over opposing guards or tackles) and even if his sack numbers are never great, he should be able to be a legitimate run-stuffer and someone who can collapse the pocket from the interior.
67. Tylan Wallace; WR Oklahoma State; WR11
68. Alim McNeill; IDL North Carolina State; IDL5
69. Walker Little; OT Stanford; OT9
70. Andre Cisco; S Syracuse; S3
Had Andre Cisco been able to stay healthy this past season, we might be talking about him as an early day two prospect. He finished his college career with 12 interceptions in just two seasons, as well as another 14 passes defended. That type of ball-hawking safety is becoming harder and harder to find in the NFL, so expect someone to grab him earlier than he’s currently projected to go.
71. Aaron Robinson; CB UCF; CB9
72. Pete Werner; LB Ohio State; LB9
73. Aaron Banks; IOL Notre Dame; IOL6
74. Brady Christensen; OT BYU; OT10
75. Jamar Johnson; S Indiana; S4
76. Jackson Carman; OT Clemson; OT11
77. Jay Tufele; IDL USC; IDL6
78. Tyson Campbell; CB Georgia; CB10
79. Stone Forsythe; OT Florida; OT12
80. Amari Rodgers; WR Clemson; WR12
81. Kenneth Gainwell; RB Memphis; RB5
The Memphis coaching staff thought so highly of Gainwell that he forced Antonio Gibson, who finished 20th in rushing yards this past season despite only playing 14 games, to play wide receiver in college. Gainwell is a threat to score any time he touches the ball and would be a good consolation prize for any team that misses out on Travis Etienne earlier in the draft.
Tier 6:
82. Jalen Mayfield; OT Michigan; OT13
One of the biggest fallers in the draft process has been Mayfield, and it’s easy to see why. He lacks the ideal size for most tackles, and most of his pre-2020 tape was terrible. At this point, most teams probably envision Mayfield as a guard which also drags his value down a round.
83. Richie Grant; S UCF; S5
84. Brevin Jordan; TE Miami; TE3
85. D’Wayne Eskridge; WR Western Michigan; WR13
86. Dayo Odeyingbo; Edge Vanderbilt; Edge11
Odeyingbo would be higher on my list if he hadn’t suffered an achilles injury in the pre-draft process. He may have to miss his rookie season but if he falls to round four I’d be all over him.
87. Milton Williams; IDL Louisiana Tech; IDL7
88. Josh Myers; IOL Ohio State; IOL7
89. Kendrick Green; IOL Illinois; IOL8
Myers and Green both come from the Big Ten and are both true center prospects. Neither one of them is going to blow you away with their athleticism but they both are potential starting centers for any zone-rushing team in the NFL.
90. Osa Odighizuwa; IDL UCLA; IDL8
91. Marvin Wilson; IDL Florida State; IDL9
92. Rashad Weaver; Edge Pittsburgh; Edge12
93. Spencer Brown; OT Northern Iowa; OT14
94. Hamsah Nasirildeen; S Florida State; S6
95. Kelvin Joseph; CB Kentucky; CB11
96. Paulson Adebo; CB Stanford; CB12
97. Kary Vincent JR; CB LSU; CB13
98. Deonte Brown; IOL Alabama; IOL9
99. Shaun Wade; CB Ohio State; CB14
100. Dylan Moses; LB Alabama; LB10
Based solely on their 2020 tape, neither Wade nor Moses would be on this list. However, I’m banking on the pedigree of both players. Wade was a 5-star recruit who was an elite slot cornerback during his first two seasons at Ohio State. However, he really struggled all year as he tried to transition to outside corner. I don’t think it’s fair to punish Wade too much for what happened last season. In addition to switching positions, he didn’t even know there was going to be a season until a month before week one. All Big Ten players should be given the benefit of the doubt this year and if a team grabs Wade to be a slot corner, he can be a successful NFL cornerback.
Moses is a trickier situation. He was also a five-star recruit and after his freshman season, looked to be well on his way to becoming a sure fire first-round draft pick. However, he tore his ACL a week before his season was about to begin in 2019 and hasn’t been the same since. Moses admitted that he played through pain last year and that his knee never fully recovered. Despite not being healthy, Moses still had a productive season last year and helped lead the Crimson Tide to another national title. I’m banking on him finding a way to contribute at the NFL level.
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6