TREVOR LAWRENCE ISNT A GENERATIONAL QUARTERBACK PROSPECT-AND NEITHER WAS ANDREW LUCK
Why the discussion around Trevor Lawrence and this year’s Quarterback class shows the NFL still hasn’t learned how to properly evaluate, or discuss, quarterback prospects.
Google search “Trevor Lawrence Andrew Luck” and you won’t run out content to keep you distracted.
Todd McShay calls Lawrence the, “best quarterback prospect I've seen come out of college since Andrew Luck .” Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report writes that, “the last time there was a quarterback who had been drooled over for years was back in 2012, when NFL teams were trying to "Suck for Luck." At his most recent pro day, one talent evaluator was quoted as saying,” well, the only one I’ve studied who’s like him is Andrew Luck. Between those two, I’d rank Andrew slightly ahead of Trevor. But it’s close.”
Reading all of that would lead you to believe that Luck was a sure-fire hall of famer, the type of generational quarterback that becomes the model for all teams to build around.
Except he never became that. He isn’t even the best quarterback from his draft class.
None of this is to say that Luck wasn’t a very good quarterback. The year he retired, he finished fifth in QBR. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded him the third best quarterback that year. Despite only playing six seasons, he still finished 68th all-time in touchdown passes. If you asked the Colts today if they would welcome Luck back out of retirement, they would say yes in a heartbeat, even after acquiring Carson Wentz.
Yet Luck never reached the regal status that followed him out of college. From 2012 to 2018, the course of his career, he was 15th in adjusted yards/attempt (ANY/A) and 17th in quarterback rating. He never led the league in passing yards, completion percentage or touchdowns. He received the same amount of MVP votes as I have.
To be clear-this isn’t an indictment of Luck. It is an indictment on talent evaluators and most draft analysts. The game has evolved dramatically over the last 20 years, but the way we discuss quarterback prospects hasn’t. The traits that many NFL scouts and draft analysts discuss when evaluating quarterbacks are not the traits that today’s top quarterbacks display.
Scouts still highlight height, pocket presence, and fit in a “pro-style” offense. It’s why Josh Rosen, Blaine Gabbert, and Jake Locker end up with higher prospect grades than Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson.
But that’s not who the top quarterbacks are in today’s NFL. Of PFF’s top 10 quarterbacks last season, only two of them are traditional pocket passers. One of them is Tom Brady-arguably the greatest quarterback of all time-who might be an alien. The other is Derek Carr, who was ranked 10th. The only quarterback on that list taller than 6’4” is Josh Allen, who is 6’5” (Trevor Lawrence is 6’6”.)
The best quarterbacks today all can improvise. If your quarterback can’t a.) make plays out of nothing , b.) make accurate throws on the run, c.) pick up a first down with his feet, or d.) be Tom Brady, then your team has a ceiling.
Of course, Lawrence can make those types of plays . So could Luck. But neither quarterback can/could improvise the way a Mahomes, Russell Wilson, or even Aaron Rodgers can. In this draft class, prospects such as Zach Wilson and Trey Lance mirror more of those elite traits than Lawrence does.
Lawrence may very well end up being a hall of fame quarterback someday. His floor is that of a solid NFL starter. He has the experience, accuracy, and athleticism to thrive at the next level. The Jaguars should (and will) select him first overall this April.
However, If Lawrence does end up being the generational quarterback so many scouts and analysts project him to be, his career is going to mirror Wilson much more so than it mirrors Luck. So it’s time to follow Luck’s lead and retire using him as the gold standard for quarterback prospects.