NFL MOCK DRAFT 6.0: How Does the Top 10 Shake Out?
We’re only three #MockDraftMonday’s away from the actual NFL Draft and what happens in the top 10 is still a mystery. This week, let’s dive into the most pressing questions for each team picking in the top 10 before running through the rest of the draft.
ROUND 1
1. Jacksonville Jaguars-Trevor Lawrence; QB Clemson
Biggest question: What would a trade for the first overall pick look like?
The obvious pick for the Jaguars is Lawrence, and there’s a 99% chance that’s what ends up happening. But what would a trade down look like?
First, teams trading the first overall pick is very rare. It has happened nine times in the last 60 years, and only once since the new collective bargaining agreement was signed in 2011. Additionally, given the way Lawrence is viewed as a prospect, this may be the most valuable first overall pick ever.
For Jacksonville to even consider trading down they would need to be guaranteed 1.) a chance for a young, elite quarterback and 2.) multiple first round picks to fill out the rest of their roster. With that said, there are two realistic trade options:
Trade 1: Jets trade 2021 first-round pick (2), 2021 first-round pick (23), 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pickto Jacksonville for 2021 first round pick(1)
After starting the season 0-13, Jets fans were openly rooting against their team down the stretch, so that they could buy their Trevor Lawrence jerseys in the offseason. Then the unthinkable happened. They won their next two games, ruining the possibility of ending up with the first overall pick, much to the chagrin of their fanbase. While Jets general manager Joe Douglas would never admit it, it’s fair to say he probably spent much of the season planning on ending up with Lawrence.
Which is why Jacksonville should place a phone call. Lawrence may be a great prospect, but this is an unusually great quarterback class. Additionally, the Jaguars went 1-15 last season. It’s not like quarterback is their only problem. If the Jaguars could take the second-best quarterback in the class and end up with three additional first-round picks, that may be an offer they can’t refuse.
Having said that, it’s hard to envision New York being desperate enough that they’re willing to give up this much just to move up one spot. That leads to trade number 2…
Trade 2: Los Angeles Chargers trade 2021 first-round pick (13) and Justin Herbert to Jacksonville for 2021 first-round pick (1)
Would Los Angeles really consider trading the reigning rookie of the year, a year after he set the record for passing touchdowns by a rookie? Maybe. Herbert did hit a bit of a rookie wall during the second half of last season, and wasn’t anywhere near the level of prospect Lawrence is. One could make the case the Chargers would be selling high on Herbert and get an additional year of a quarterback on a rookie contract.
From Jacksonville’s perspective, they would be trading a quarterback that projects to be a great for a quarterback who, for at least one season, has already established himself as a great quarterback. It’s not often a team can trade for a franchise quarterback and get an additional first round pick.
At the end of the day, in a league that is generally risk-averse, it’s highly unlikely any of these trades come to fruition. That shouldn’t stop Jacksonville from doing their due diligence.
2. New York Jets- Zach Wilson; QB BYU
Key question: What can the Jets get back for Sam Darnold?
All indications point to New York selecting Wilson with the second overall pick. If the Jets do take Wilson, or any of the other top quarterback prospects for that matter, they would be making the right decision. Re-setting the rookie quarterback timeline, with a better quarterback and coaching staff, improves both the Jets short-term and long-term outlook.
The next question the Jets must answer is what to do with Sam Darnold. A former top-three pick who still has plenty of fans, the Jets have every reason to expect a healthy return for their starting quarterback. The problem is the market for teams looking for a new quarterback is shrinking. There’s likely going to be five quarterbacks picked in the first round-and probably within the first 15 picks. Once you get past those teams, there are only three teams that might consider trading for a quarterback:
1.) Washington Football Team
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a perfect bridge quarterback, but no one expects him to be the quarterback of the future. Washington also has plenty of cap space both this year and in the future, and given their existing talent level, no easy path to finding a young quarterback. If New York is willing to give up Darnold for a couple of third-round picks, Washington would be wise to jump all over it.
2.) Chicago Bears
The Bears have only been looking for a franchise quarterback since forever. Additionally, despite their twitter proclamation, is doubtful Chicago is committed to Andy Dalton as QB1. Having said that, Chicago doesn’t have the cap space or draft capital other teams have, so trading for Darnold probably isn’t in the cards.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh needs to start thinking about post Ben Roethlisberger life. Like Washington, Pittsburgh probably doesn’t have a path to acquiring a young quarterback unless they make a trade for an existing commodity. Darnold’s style of play fits Pittsburgh’s offense and they shouldn’t wait until next year to find Roethlisberger’s successor.
3. San Francisco 49ers-Justin Fields; QB Ohio State
Key Question: Who did San Francisco trade up for?
San Francisco made their all-in-move to move up to pick three. Now the fun part-guessing which quarterback San Francisco wants. The decision comes down to three players-ranked from least likely to most.
Option 1: Mac Jones
Mac Jones is a solid quarterback prospect. He’s a good decision maker, has a high football IQ, and can place the ball exactly where it needs to be. On a rookie contract, Jones can be a great bargain for whatever teams acquires him.
Having said that, trading two future first-rounders for a quarterback with his skillset would be criminal. Elite quarterbacks must be able to make plays with their feet, and that skill is completely lacking from Jones’ arsenal. Teams aren’t trading two first-round picks for the next Kirk Cousins.
No one knows this better than Kyle Shanahan. He essentially said as much this past December. The reports linking Jones to San Francisco are definitely credible, but ultimately the 49ers aren’t trading this much draft capital to settle for average.
Option 2: Trey Lance
Meanwhile, Lance definitely has the skill set a team would trade up for. His college tape looks like Giannis Antetokounmpo play in the Greek League. There wasn’t a single player he played against who matched his skills and athleticism. Even if San Francisco wants to play Jimmy Garoppolo this year, Lance would be a great fit to take over in a year.
Having said that, trading two first rounders for a quarterback who didn’t play Division I football is a huge risk. He threw 10 passes in the championship game last year. Lance is an elite talent who could easily end up being the best quarterback in this draft. However, there is a safer option available.
Option 3: Justin Fields
Coming out of high school, Fields was 1B to Lawrence’s 1A. They went on to have very similar collegiate careers at similar schools. In 22 career starts, Fields had two bad games.
Which is why his sudden draft stock stumble is baffling. The racial tropes questioning his work ethic are even more baffling considering Fields had every reason in the world to opt-out of this year’s college football season, yet he led the charge to bring football back to the Big Ten. Kyle Shanahan knows quarterbacks-and Fields is special. This should be a match made in Heaven.
4. **TRADE** Minnesota Vikings-Trey Lance; QB North Dakota State
Falcons Receive: 2021 first-round pick (14), 2021 third-round pick (90), 2021 fourth-round pick (134), 2022 first-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick, 2023 first-round pick.
Vikings Receive: 2021 first round pick (4), 2022 fifth-round pick
Key Question: Why would Minnesota trade up?
There’s never been a draft with four quarterbacks being selected with the first four picks. Then again, there’s never been four quarterbacks this good before. If Atlanta doesn’t end up taking a quarterback, someone is going to move up to grab their quarterback. So why Minnesota?
First, trading Kirk Cousins next offseason would give Minnesota $35 million in extra cap space next year. Secondly, even if this trade goes through, Minnesota will have made 23 draft picks over the last two seasons. That’s a ton of draft capital to use on young players to usher in a new era.
Finally, Minnesota needs to move on from the Kirk Cousins era. Cousins is a very solid quarterback who has consistently engineered a strong offense. For a fourth-round pick, he has greatly exceeded expectations. Yet, he’s only won one playoff game in Minnesota, and his timeline doesn’t match the rest of the roster. The Cousins/Vikings era has reached their ceiling-and it makes sense for both sides to move on next year. Minnesota can let Lance sit for a year and then turn the reigns over to the most talented quarterback to play for the Vikings since 2004 Daunte Culpepper.
5. Cincinnati Bengals-Penei Sewell; OT Oregon
Key Question: Does Cincinnati go pass catcher or pass blocker with the fifth pick?
If the first four picks go quarterback, then Cincinnati can select the best non-quarterback of the draft. According to almost every draft board, that narrows it down to three players: Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell. Ultimately, the decision comes down to which position is a bigger need for the Bengals.
The case for pass catcher
After losing franchise icon A.J. Green this offseason, Joe Burrow needs a new number one target. Additionally, there is a big hole at tight end, as the Bengals tight ends only managed to produce a combined 490 yards and one touchdown last season. There’s also the obvious connection Chase and Burrow both played at LSU together, and that worked out pretty well. A pass catching trio of Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Kyle Pitts/Ja’Mar Chase would give Burrow an elite set of weapons to work with. However, it won’t matter who Burrow is throwing to if he doesn’t receive better protection. Which leads to…
The case for offensive line
In just nine games last year, Burrow was hit 72 times. He only had more than 2.5 seconds to throw on 50% of his throws. His season ended like this last year.
Which is exactly why Cincinnati needs to take Sewell with pick five. The two biggest arguments used against taking Sewell seems to be that 1.) it’s a deep tackle class this year and 2.) Cincinnati has their tackle spots locked up after signing Riley Reiff to a one-year deal.
First of all-it is a deep tackle class this year. In the latest Big Board, there are 13 tackles listed in the top 100. The only position that’s deeper is…wide receiver that has 14 players listed. Additionally, offensive tackle tends to be a much safer bet in the top 10 than wide receiver or tight end.
With respect to Reiff signing, not drafting an elite tackle prospect because you signed a capable starter to a one-year deal is preposterous. The Bengals should be thinking about how they are going to protect Burrow for the next decade, not just next year. Neither Reiff, nor incumbent left tackle Jonah Williams, has done enough to establish themselves as roadblocks to drafting Sewell. There’s also no rule stating Cincinnati can’t move Reiff or Williams to guard.
Pitts and Chase are great prospects at luxury positions. Sewell is a great prospect at an essential position. This shouldn’t be a difficult choice.
6. Miami Dolphins-Ja’Marr Chase; WR LSU
Key Question: Which pass catcher does Miami want?
With the top four quarterbacks and Sewell off the board, Miami can take their favorite prospect. While Rashawn Slater is appealing for many of the reasons Sewell is the correct choice for the Bengals, it’s unlikely the Dolphins traded up to six to draft the second-best tackle prospect. Plus, Pitts and Chase are a different tier of prospect than Slater.
So, the choice comes down to Pitts or Chase. Pitts is a generational tight end prospect. We’ve never seen someone at his size and position move the way he does. Also, just because the Dolphins have a solid tight end option on their roster should not exclude Miami from drafting Pitts. Both Pitts and incumbent tight end Mike Gesicki can split out, and 12 personnel is becoming increasingly more popular.
Having said that, there’s a reason tight end’s rarely get drafted in the top 10. An elite wide receiver can impact the game so much more than an elite tight end can. Pitts is special and if Miami has him rated much higher than any receiver, they shouldn’t hesitate to grab him. If it’s close though, the Dolphins should opt for the receiver.
7. **TRADE** Atlanta Falcons-Kyle Pitts; TE Florida
Lions receive: 2021 first-round pick (14), 2022 first-round pick.
Falcons receive: 2021 first-round pick (7)
Key question: Why would Atlanta and Detroit do this?
With this trade, the Falcons are mirroring the Dolphins. After acquiring two first rounders from their trade down at four, they can use one of their picks to move back up to take the player they would have selected at four. The Falcons end up with Pitts, who’s a perfect fit in Arthur Smith’s offense, plus a third rounder this year, a fourth rounder this year, and an additional 2023 first-round pick. Imagine opposing defenses having to come up with a game plan to stop Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.
From Detroit’s perspective, this trade arms them with five first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. For a team that’s just starting their rebuild, that’s exactly the type of draft capital that can vault them into contention in a few years. Detroit can take a solid player at 14, establish their culture with a new coaching staff, and figure out what they need in 2022 and 2023 to become contenders.
8. Carolina Panthers-Rashawn Slater; OT Northwestern
Key Question: What happens if Carolina doesn’t land one of the big four quarterbacks?
The Panthers have made it known they want an upgrade at quarterback this offseason. However, with Deshaun Watson talks tabled and the top four quarterbacks off board, Carolina needs to ask themselves if Mac Jones is an upgrade over incumbent Teddy Bridgewater?
Bridgewater wasn’t great last season and despite all of their weapons, Carolina only finished in 17th in offensive efficiency. The area Bridgewater struggled most was downfield passing, which is an area where Bridgewater has struggled through his entire career. If Carolina wants to their offense to take a leap forward, they’ll need quarterback that can make more plays downfield.
Which is why it’s hard to envision Carolina taking Jones. While he certainly was accurate on deep balls, more than a third of passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Also like Bridgewater, Jones doesn’t make many plays outside of the pocket and isn’t much of a scrambler. Jones’ conservative style of play doesn’t mesh with the aggressive mindset of Panthers owner David Tepper. As a result, Carolina should continue to build up the rest of their roster before making their big move for quarterback next offseason, when more big names might become available.
9. Denver Broncos-Patrick Surtain II; CB Alabama
Key question: How aggressive does first-year general manager George Paton want to get?
After San Francisco traded up to number three, Denver became a popular choice to trade up to number four with Atlanta to grab a quarterback. The Broncos were rumored to be in the Matt Stafford trade market, and nothing about Drew Lock’s play last year suggests Denver is committed long term.
However, first-year general managers don’t often make a big move for quarterback in year one. Denver has a very talented offense and an upgrade at quarterback could make them playoff contenders next season, but it’s unlikely that Paton is going to want to give up future draft capital he can spend to shape the roster the way he wants it. If Jones is the pick at three and Fields or Lance start to fall, maybe Denver moves up a slot of two to grab a QB. If not, they probably stay patient and give Lock one more chance to win the job.
10. Dallas Cowboys-Jaycee Horn; CB South Carolina
Key question: How does Dallas keep building around Dak Prescott.
The Cowboys are locked into Prescott after making him the second highest paid quarterback in the NFL. Now the question becomes-how can they build around him?
If the offensive line gets healthy, Dallas should have the best offense in the NFC East next year and one of the best in the NFL. Dallas needs to get more impact players on defense, especially in the secondary. Prescott’s contract limits the amount of money Dallas can spend at the position, so they’re going to have to build through the draft. Horn would be a great fit in Dallas.
Rest of the First Round
11. New York Giants-Jaylen Waddle; WR Alabama
12. Philadelphia Eagles-DeVonta Smith; WR Alabama
13. Los Angeles Chargers-Christian Darrisaw; OT Virginia Tech.
14. Detroit Lions-Caleb Farley; CB Virginia Tech
15. New England Patriots-Mac Jones; QB Alabama
16. **Trade** New York Jets-Jaelan Phillips; Edge Miami
Arizona Receives: 2021 first-round pick (16), 2021 third-round pick (86)
New York Receives: 2021 first-round pick (16).
17. Las Vegas Raiders-Teven Jenkins; OT Oklahoma State
18. Miami Dolphins-Micah Parsons; LB Penn State
19. Washington Football Team-Trevon Moehrig; S TCU
20. Chicago Bears-Rashod Bateman; WR Minnesota.
21. Indianapolis Colts-Liam Eichenberg; OT Notre Dame
22. Tennessee Titans-Greg Newsome II; CB Northwestern
23. Arizona Cardinals-Alijah Vera-Tucker; IOL USC
24. Pittsburgh Steelers-Landon Dickerson; IOL Alabama
25. Jacksonville Jaguars-Kadarius Toney; WR Florida
26. Cleveland Browns-Kwity Paye; Edge Rusher Michigan
27. Baltimore Ravens-Azeez Ojulari; Edge Rusher Georgia
28. **Trade** Buffalo Bills-Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah; LB Notre Dame
New Orleans receives: 2021 first-round pick (30), 2021 fifth-round pick (174), 2021 sixth-round pick (213)
Buffalo receives: 2021 first-round pick (28)
29. Green Bay Packers-Eric Stokes; CB Georgia
30. New Orleans Saints-Zaven Collins; LB Tulsa
31. Kansas City Chiefs-Samuel Cosmi; OT Texas
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Christian Barmore; IDL Alabama