DRAFTING QUARTERBACKS: WHAT THE LAST DECADE OF NFL DRAFTS CAN TEACH US ABOUT HOW TO DRAFT THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION
A deep dive into the last 10 years of NFL drafts to find out how quarterback needy teams should approach the draft.
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that dramatically altered the way rookies get paid when they enter the NFL. From a team building perspective, this made rookie quarterbacks the most valuable asset in all of sports.
Yet since the new CBA, there has only been one quarterback drafted in the first round that has won a Super Bowl as their team’s starter (guess who). The only other quarterbacks who won Super Bowls were Russell Wilson, who was drafted in round three, and Carson Wentz, who didn’t play because of a torn ACL. Cam Newton and Jared Goff both made Super Bowls, but their teams combined for 13 points.
So what gives? If quarterbacks are so important, why aren’t teams doing a better job drafting them?
To try and find some answers, I compiled a list of all the quarterbacks over the last 10 years that were consensus top 100 prospects, which you can find right here. Next, I compiled their average rank as a prospect, using the same methodology as our big board. Unfortunately, the only sites that go back ten years are ESPN and NFL.com (shoutout to them!) so they were the only sites used in this exercise.
After that, I compared each prospect’s average ranking to where they were selected in the draft. I took the difference of those two numbers to compile a metric that I named “reach score.” For example, Andrew Luck had an average rank of one and was selected with the first overall pick, so his reach score would be zero (1-1=0). Baker Mayfield was also selected first overall, but his average rank was 16, so his reach score would equal 15 (16-1=15). If a player was selected later than what their cumulative average ranking projected, they would receive a negative reach score.
Finally, I broke the quarterbacks into five different tiers. This was admittedly, the most subjective part of the exercise. The tiers are:
1. Backup/fringe NFL player
2. Starter who ended up being a bust
3. Competent NFL starter
4. Pro Bowl/Franchise Quarterback
5. Hall-of-Famer
For the purposes of this exercise, I did not score any of the 2020 quarterbacks except Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm, who I feel comfortable calling backups. The jury is still out on the other five quarterbacks, although the early returns are promising for most of them.
Before we dive into the results, let’s look back at some notable names who are not on this list.
Dak Prescott
The $160 million man did not make the top 100 in either ESPN or NFL.com’s rankings in 2016. While this may have cost him some up-front money, as he fell to the fourth round, it’s safe to say things worked out just fine for Mr. Prescott.
Russell Wilson
Another handsomely paid quarterback who was not on either site’s top 100. The complaints about Wilson coming out of college are well documented, but at least his success paved the way for someone like Kyler Murray to not get overlooked in the draft.
Colin Kaepernick
In hindsight, it’s pretty incredible that these three quarterbacks weren’t top 100 prospects (although Kaepernick did get selected in the second round). All three quarterbacks were extremely productive in college, mobile, and had big arms. Kaepernick and Prescott also had the prototypical size that teams look for in quarterbacks. Good thing Kaepernick’s career never faced any unwarranted obstacles ever again.
With all that said, let’s take a look at a look at the last 10 years of quarterback drafts and find out the lessons that teams should take away.
TAKEAWAYS
Pat Mahomes is a unicorn
Of all the quarterbacks drafted in the last ten years, Mahomes had the highest reach score by far. He is also the best quarterback on this list, and quite possibly on his way to becoming the greatest quarterback of all time. Unfortunately for the other 31 teams in the league, the “Pat Mahomes” model is not sustainable. Mahomes was a unique prospect that landed in the perfect situation. The combination of a quarterback with unprecedented physical tools being paired with the best offensive coaching infrastructure in football is not something teams should try to replicate. In fact, the real lesson teams should take away from this list is:
Don’t reach for your quarterback.
Once you get past Mahomes, the rest of the list is pretty ugly. While Justin Herbert had a very promising rookie season, no other quarterback on this list became a successful starting quarterback. In fact, apart from Jones and Hurts, who are on shaky footing with their respective teams, no quarterback on this list made it past their rookie contract with the team that drafted them. The only quarterbacks on this list who are even still in the league are Jones, Hurts and Trubisky, who is currently unemployed.
This should not be a surprise. Most teams that select quarterbacks in the first round are not good, and it takes a transcendent talent to be able to overcome that. Even if you do land a great quarterback, success isn’t guaranteed. If there isn’t a transcendent talent available at quarterback, teams are better off drafting the best player available at any position and try to find a quarterback the following year.
In terms of how this affects this year’s class, let’s examine Mac Jones. Jones’ current average rank is 39.3, which places him in between Trubisky and Andy Dalton as a prospect.
The only quarterbacks on this list who were successful were Dalton and Garoppolo. Both were drafted in the second round and did not have the expectation of being the franchise savior. Every other quarterback on this list was a backup or a bust. Jones can be a piece on a successful team, but he shouldn’t be expected to be the piece. Teams would be wise to account for this before taking Jones early in the first round.
Don’t grab the quarterback that starts to fall precipitously.
Here is the list of the quarterbacks with the 20 lowest reach scores of the last decade:
Notice a pattern? Only two quarterbacks on this list ended up being viable starting quarterbacks. Again, this should not come as a huge shock. Teams are going to try and talk themselves into a quarterback well before they are going to talk themselves out of a quarterback.
In other words, if your team drafts Kyle Trask in round five instead of round three, don’t think they ended up with the steal of the draft. They probably would have been better off just waiting until round seven.
Outside of knowing who is bad, drafting quarterback is a total crapshoot.
The chart above compares the ranking of every top 100 quarterback of the last ten years to what tier of quarterback they ended up being. It shows us that draft evaluators have gotten much better at knowing who is going to be a bad quarterback. Teams are no longer drafting JaMarcus Russell or Akili Smith at the top of the draft, and analysts aren’t putting them atop their draft board.
However, no one has figured out who is going to be a great quarterback. One explanation is quarterback evaluation has not evolved with the NFL. More importantly, so much of a quarterback’s success is dependent on what the team does around him.
Let’s examine the highly hyped 2018 quarterback class. All five of the top quarterbacks were considered first round caliber quarterbacks, and all had reasonable reach scores.
At this point, most people would rank these quarterbacks as 1.) Allen 2.) Jackson 3.) Mayfield 4.) Darnold 5.) Rosen.
Now let’s look at how each team chose to build around each player. Allen has had the same head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback coach from the minute he’s entered the NFL. The Ravens built their entire roster and offensive philosophy to maximize Jackson’s talent.
On the flip side, Mayfield has had three head coaches in three years, and one of those coaches was Freddie Kitchens. No matter where Darnold plays next year, he will also be on his third head coach and third offensive system, in addition to having a much worse supporting cast than Allen, Jackson, and even Mayfield has had.
It is impossible to know how Allen’s career would have ended up if he was selected by New York, or if Arizona had taken Jackson over Rosen. What we do know is the minute a team decides to draft a rookie quarterback, they have an obligation to do everything in their power to build their entire organizational philosophy towards helping them succeed.
What does this mean for this year’s class?
First, we know the top three quarterbacks in this class are unusually good. This is the first class since the new CBA was signed where there are three quarterbacks that are consensus top 10 prospects.
Lawrence, Wilson and Fields’ success at the next level will largely depend on the way the teams that draft them build around them, but these quarterbacks have separated themselves enough to affirm they should be the first three players selected in the draft.
Trey Lance is a more interesting phenomenon. If we look at the ten quarterback prospects that compare most to Lance, we see a ton of variance.
Contrary to what we would expect, the quarterbacks on this list with the highest reach score have ended up being the most successful, except for Bortles.
While that doesn’t mean Lance should be picked in the top five to ensure he has a high reach score, it does suggest that there isn’t enough evidence to say a team shouldn’t take Lance with a top five pick.
If Atlanta is sitting at pick four and Lawrence, Wilson and Fields are all off the board, Lance is a very appealing option. Considering the success new Falcons head coach Arthur Smith had with Ryan Tannehill, a quarterback who was a similar prospect with a similar skill set, there is a strong case Lance is the best option.
Finally, as discussed earlier, there is no precedent for a quarterback with Mac Jones’ ranking being taken early in the draft and then becoming a great quarterback. There’s a better chance he becomes a backup than a pro bowl caliber quarterback.
Final Thoughts
Drafting a quarterback is the most important, and most difficult, decision a team must make. Much like everything else in the world, there is no silver bullet. However, teams can still improve their process, and part of that improvement involves using the last ten years of data to inform their decision.