Whether they’re coming from Moses in the desert or Alexander Hamilton on Broadway, sometimes we all need to be given some commandments to live by. With that said, and in no particular order, here are the 10 NFL Draft Commandments that all NFL Draft enthusiasts should live by.
1. THOU SHALL NOT CRITICIZE A TEAM FOR NOT TRADING DOWN, UNLESS ONE CAN PROVE ANOTHER TEAM WAS WILLING TO TRADE UP.
It has been well documented that NFL teams tend to overrate their drafting ability. Smart teams have been able to take advantage of this by trading down in the draft to accumulate more picks. As this practice has become more mainstream, fans and analysts alike are more comfortable criticizing teams for not trading down.
This is perfectly fine until you remember it takes two teams to execute a trade. Today, almost every team uses some version of a draft trade value chart, which assigns value to each pick in the draft. As teams continue to become more comfortable with analytics, there are going to be less and less teams willing to trade up in the draft. Try to keep that in mind before criticizing your favorite team for not trading down.
2. THOU SHALL NO LONGER USE THE TERM “PRO-STYLE OFFENSE.”
This is a pro-style offense. So is this, this and unfortunately this. Offense isn’t the same as it was thirty years ago, or even ten years ago. There is no universal “Pro-Style” offense anymore. Let’s retire the phrase permanently before teams make another draft mistake.
3. THOU SHALL NOT DRAFT A RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST ROUND UNLESS THEY ARE THE DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
The reason to not draft a running back in the first round is simple. First and foremost, passing the ball is much more efficient than running. Additionally, running backs are much cheaper and more expendable than any other position.
To further illustrate this, let’s look at two examples. Baker Mayfield, the first overall selection in the 2018 draft, has an average annual salary $8.1 million, which makes him the 25th highest paid quarterback in the league. Saquon Barkley, the second overall pick in the same draft, has an annual salary of $7.7 million. This already makes him the 10th highest paid running back.
If you just won the Super Bowl, you’re probably set at every other position, so you can afford to take a flyer at running back. Everyone else should stay away.
4. THOU SHALL NOT REFERENCE THE 40-YARD DASH TIME OF AN OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
Everyone loves big men touchdowns. It’s even more fun when they have to run. Unfortunately, it tells us nothing about their ability. In fact…
5. THOU SHALL NOT OVERRATE THE NFL COMBINE
While part of the fun of draft season is hyperventilating over things like quarterback hand size and bench press reps, the truth is most drills don’t matter. At this point, the combine is really just spring break for football personnel.
6. THOU SHALL VALUE INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINEMEN MORE THAN EDGE RUSHERS
The old cliché in football is the two most valuable positions are quarterbacks and pass rushers. While this is still true, most NFL teams have yet to catch on to the fact that interior defensive linemen have surpassed edge rushers in terms of value.
The reasoning is simple. First, interior linemen start closer to the ball, which means they are closer to the quarterback. Additionally, interior defensive linemen are matched up against offensive guards, while edge rushers must match up against superior offensive tackles. Guards are the relief pitchers of the offensive line-if they were good enough to be tackles, they would be playing tackle. Putting your best defensive linemen against weaker offensive linemen allows your defense to generate more pass rush.
Finally, the league is making it more difficult for edge rushers to disrupt the game. Offensive holding calls dropped by more than 50% in 2020, and the sack rate last season dropped to its fourth lowest total since 1949. As the rules continue to make things easier for the offense, soon the only way to generate pass rush is going to be from the interior.
7. THOU SHALL NOT TRADE A BETTER DRAFT PICK IN THE FUTURE, FOR A CURRENT DRAFT PICK IN THE PRESENT
Teams may have learned their lesson about trading up in the draft using current draft capital, but they are still too flippant with future picks. When a team sees a prospect they love start to slip in the draft, they trade away future draft picks to grab him. This is dumb. That prospect is slipping for a reason, and teams fall in love with players every year. NFL teams are billion-dollar franchises yet their general managers would fail the marshmallow experiment.
8. THOU SHALL ONLY TRADE UP FOR QUARTERBACKS.
The final three commandments all deal with the most important position in sports. If you are going to trade up in the draft, it should only be done to grab a quarterback. That’s because the most valuable asset in all of sports is a quarterback on a rookie contract.
In 2020, 15 of the 22 most expensive players against the cap were quarterbacks. The 10 highest paid quarterbacks last year had an average annual salary of $33.6 million. In terms of salary cap, starting quarterbacks take up about 20% of a team’s cap space.
That’s why quarterbacks on rookie deals are such a bargain. Since the NFL and the Players Union signed a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) in 2011, the average salary for a quarterback on a rookie deal is around $6 million. In terms of salary cap hits, quarterbacks on rookie deals only take up about 4% of a team’s cap space.
If you have a quarterback on a rookie deal, you have five times as much cap space to spend on the rest of your roster. That makes quarterbacks worth trading up for.
9. THOU SHALL ONLY DRAFT QUARTERBACKS IN ROUND ONE OR ROUND SEVEN.
Before everyone starts shouting “What about Tom Brady and Russell Wilson,” there’s a reason you can name Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL last year, 23 were selected round one. Only four were selected after round three.
While teams overrate their own drafting ability, the league is very efficient overall when it comes to the draft. If a quarterback is good enough to be a starter, they aren’t making it past round one.
There is value to drafting a quarterback to be a backup. However, that value is limited. Quarterback tends to be one of the healthiest positions in all of football, limiting the likelihood a backup ever plays. Plus, no team ever wants their backup quarterback to play. Even though most late round picks end up as backups, they are still likely to see meaningful playing time either via injury or special teams if they don’t play QB.
At the end of the day, why choose the sixth rated quarterback in a draft class in round three, if you can get the 11th best quarterback in round seven. In both scenarios, the quarterback you take is likely to be a backup. If you wait until round seven, you can use your other picks on players you hope become starters, or at the very least valuable on special teams.
10. THOU SHALL NOT OVERRATE THE BEST QUARTERBACK PROSPECT
At first glance, this seems to contradict most of the previous nine commandments. Quarterbacks are the most valuable position in sports and they’re even more valuable on rookie contracts. A team should be doing everything they can to get their hands on the best quarterback prospect.
Except more times than not, the best quarterback prospect doesn’t work out. A quarterback selected with the first overall pick hasn’t led their team to a Super Bowl victory since Eli Manning. If you exclude anyone with the last name Manning, it hasn’t happened since Troy Aikman in 1989.
In addition, while quarterback is still the most valuable position in all of sports, it takes more than a great quarterback to win. The Eagles, Rams and 49ers have all made Super Bowl’s recently with Nick Foles, Jared Goff, and Jimmy Garoppolo as their quarterbacks. The Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers this year not because of Pat Mahomes, but because Tampa was better at almost every other position.
So what does this all mean? Let’s look at the team with the first overall pick this year, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Instead of taking Trevor Lawrence with the first pick, Jacksonville should consider trading down a few slots (assuming someone would be interested in trading up, which at least half the league would be), select one of the other top QB prospects with that pick and use the rest of their draft picks and cap space to put together the rest of their roster. Do that and Urban Meyer will be able to do something Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban couldn’t: win at both the college level and the professional ranks.