NFL DRAFT-WHO’S STOCK IS RISING? WHO’S STOCK IS FALLING?
We’re now less than three weeks away from the 2021 NFL Draft and teams and analysts alike are finalizing their big boards. With that said, let’s look at some of the prospects who have risen and fallen the most since January, as well as dig into some of the reasons why.
RISERS
Jamin Davis; LB Kentucky
January Rank: unranked
Current RNK: 44
Projected Round: First/Second
No one has shot up draft boards as quickly as Davis has. Even when he declared for the draft, most people had him pegged as a fourth or fifth rounder. However, after an impressive pro day and closer look at his tape, many mock drafts now have him going in round one.
It’s easy to fall in love with Davis. All one must do is watch his highlight package to see his athleticism jump off the screen. He’s also a sound tackler and is solid in pass coverage, which is a must in today’s NFL.
Having said, he’s very inexperienced. He’s only had one season as middle linebacker (MIKE), and he’ll more than likely begin his career as a Weak Inside Linebacker (WILL.) Spending a first round pick on a WILL linebacker-albeit a very talented one-is a poor use of draft capital which is why teams would be better of waiting until day two before drafting Davis. Still, this is a great success story for a prospect who bet on himself.
Milton Williams; IDL Louisiana Tech
January Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 77
Projected Round: Second/Third
It’s easy to see how Williams slipped under the radar. Playing in Conference USA, the only spotlight game he had last season was against Zach Wilson’s BYU, a game in which Williams was mostly a non-factor. Nonetheless, he had a very nice career, finishing with 19 tackles for loss the past two seasons.
Like many late risers, Williams’ draft stock began to soar after his pro day workout. Williams solidified himself as the fastest defensive lineman in the draft, as well as one of the most explosive. Still, teams should be cautious when it comes to Williams. This is a very weak interior defensive line class and while Williams was productive, someone with his skill set should have been dominating Conference USA talent. This could be an example of teams trying to talk themselves into a player because he fits a position of need.
Quinn Meinerz; IOL Wisconsin-Whitewater
January Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 60
Projected Round: Second/Third
Meinerz introduced himself to the world with his unique wardrobe and dominant performance at the Senior Bowl. Meinerz’s senior season was cancelled due to Covid-19, but the man spent all year working on his craft. Make no mistake-this guy is legit. As a potential third-round pick, he may end up being one of the biggest steals in the draft.
FALLERS
Paris Ford
January Rank: 78
Current Rank: 181
Projected Round: Sixth
Ford entered the year as one of the top safety prospects in the country. However, (unfair) character concerns arose after he opted out of the 2020 season following a four game losing streak, and he was one of the few prospects that had a bad pro day workout this year. Ford had a strong 2019 season and shouldn’t be punished for an inconsistent 2020 season that was not a normal year. Unfortunately for his sake, Ford doesn’t have great size and if he can’t make that up with athleticism, there are legitimate concerns about his fit at the next level. Teams should still take a flyer on him if he falls past round five.
Chuba Hubbard
January Rank: 91
Current Rank: 177
Projected Round: Fifth/Sixth
After rushing for over 2000 yards in 2019, some scouts thought Hubbard could be the best running back in the draft class. Then the 2020 season happened. He only rushed for 625 yards on a pedestrian 4.7 yards/carry, and the explosion from 2019 was completely gone.
NFL teams need to ask themselves which version of Hubbard is the one that’s going to translate in the NFL. If it’s 2019, then he could be a feature running back for most NFL teams. If it’s the 2020 version, he may not have place in the league at all.
Jamie Newman
January Rank: 88
Current Rank: 175
Projected Round: 6th
While most prospects were correct in their decision to opt out, Newman could have used the extra year in college. After a flashy but inconsistent 2019 at Wake Forest, Newman transferred to Georgia where he would have had a chance to demonstrate his skills against SEC talent. A productive 2020 season would have compared Newman favorably to fellow SEC quarterback prospects Mac Jones, Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond.
When watching Newman, it’s easy to see the traits that evaluators fell in love with initially. He’s big, has an NFL arm and can move. However, he’s just not consistent enough. His production dropped significantly at Wake Forest once Sage Surratt went down, and the offense he ran was very simple, highlighting Newman’s strengths while masking up his weaknesses.
With such a limited sample size, there’s a chance Newman could pop. It’s a better gamble than some of the more experienced prospects like Trask and Mond. However, there are just too many questions to justify selecting him anytime before round five or six.