UNIVERSITIES AND POSITIONS: IS "LINEBACKER U” A MYTH
Do Certain Colleges Really Produce Better Pro’s at Certain Positions?
Even the most casual college football fan has probably heard the term “Linebacker U” at one point in their life. After producing collegiate stars like Lavarr Arrington and Paul Posluszny, Penn State used their “Linebacker U” moniker on the recruiting path to try and bring in the best linebackers in the country.
Penn State isn’t the only school that claimed to have special powers with certain positions. Stanford, Miami and Notre Dame have all been crowned “Tight End U” at some point or another, and Ohio State has been anointed “Cornerback U” by some due to their recent run of secondary players drafted in the first round.
While these schools may pride themselves on the talent they produce at certain positions, the questions NFL teams must ask themselves is-does that talent translate to the professional level? Do certain programs really produce better talent at certain positions and should NFL teams factor that in their evaluation.
To help teams answer those questions, I went back and looked at the last ten years of NFL drafts, which you can find right here. Next, I looked at the which positions have been drafted the most during that time span which you can see below:
Due to the lack of volume of players drafted, I excluded tight end, quarterback, fullback, and special teams positions from this exercise (plus you can learn everything you need about quarterbacks right here).
To evaluate the success of a player, I used Pro Football Reference’s “Weighted Career Approximate Value” (CarAV) stat, which you can read about here. I then sorted each player by their position, college they attended and CarAV.
To evaluate the school’s success, I ranked the schools on four metrics: 1.) how many players have they had drafted at that position, 2.) what was the average round those players were selected, 3.) what was the total CarAV those players have produced, and 4.) what is the CarAV/player drafted. For sake of this article, I didn’t dive into metrics such as expected CarAV relative to draft round or position, but I may revisit that at a future date. The school that has the lowest composite rankings earns the title of “Position U.” If that school has a composite score of single digits, then it was determined they were a reliable indicator of professional success.
With that said, let’s start diving into the positional data, starting with the one spot that has a clear winner.
RUNNING BACK
As the only school to produce a non-quarterback Heisman winner this century, Alabama has been dominant at finding skill position talent, especially at running back. The second and third place schools, LSU and Georgia, haven’t even combined to produce the CarAV that Alabama running backs have. Not surprisingly, Alabama has the number one running back prospect in this year’s draft. Expect Najee Harris to produce on Sunday’s.
“Running Back U”: Alabama
Reliable NFL Indicator: Yes
WIDE RECEIVER
Another position that Alabama has dominated. While “Bama” hasn’t had quite as many players drafted as other schools on this list, they have produced some of the best receivers this decade. The group is led by Julio Jones, who is one of the greatest receivers of all time, but have also had strong contributions from Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley. Given their school’s track record, history suggests Jalen Waddle and Devonta Smith would be safe selections for whomever drafts them this year.
Interestingly, the two schools with the most receivers drafted have not had a lot of success producing successful NFL wide receivers. Georgia produced a future Hall-of-Famer in AJ Green, but none of their other draftees have stood out. Meanwhile, Ohio State has also produced a legit superstar in Michael Thomas, but with flameouts like Devin Smith and Braxton Miller on this list, they have had more misses than hits at this position.
“Wide Receiver U”: Alabama
Reliable Indicator: Yes
SECONDARY
Finally, a position that’s not entirely dominated by Alabama. LSU gets to claim the title of “Secondary U,” in large part thanks to contributions from stars Patrick Peterson and Tyron Mathieu. LSU’s success could be a good harbinger for teams looking at Kary Vincent Jr, who opted out this past season but was a productive slot corner for LSU’s national title team. Additionally, while they lack the volume as some of the other schools, both South Carolina and Washington have done a strong job of producing secondary talent. This bodes well for the futures of Jaycee Horn and Elijah Molden, who should both hear their names called early this year.
Yet again, this is another position where Ohio State’s production hasn’t matched the hype. The Buckeyes are tied with LSU and Bama for having the most players drafted, but their players haven’t produced even half of the value. Recent history hasn’t been kind either as Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette both had disappointing rookie seasons, while players such as Malik Hooker and Eli Apple have struggled with consistency and injuries. This might be another reason why Shaun Wade is tumbling down draft boards.
“Secondary U”: LSU
Reliable Indicator: Yes
OFFENSIVE LINE
While receivers and cornerbacks may get all the attention, any big man will tell you games are won or lost in the trenches. We’ve also reached the positions where the Midwest schools lead the way. Our top school, Wisconsin, has produced two of the six all team leading rushers in college football-and it’s not just because of their running backs. Wisconsin has always had the reputation of producing strong offensive line play and while their pipeline has slowed down a little bit in recent years, studs like Ryan Ramczyk, Travis Frederick and Kevin Zeitler have made Badgers fans proud.
However, in recent years the true offensive line powerhouse has been from a different Midwest school. Notre Dame offensive linemen don’t last in the draft very long-and for good reason. One could easily argue that Notre Dame has produced the best active left tackle, left guard and right guard in the NFL. In fact, of all the schools that have had at least five players selected at a certain position, no school has produced more value than Notre Dame has at offensive line. Fortunately for NFL teams this year, Notre Dame has three offensive line prospects that should be able to start for their respective teams in week one (Liam Eichenberg, Aaron Banks and Robert Hainsey). I’m bending the rules a little with this selection, but the Fighting Irish have earned it.
“Offensive Line U”: Technically Wisconsin, but given their recent dominance-NOTRE DAME
Reliable Indicator: Yes
DEFENSIVE LINE
Of all the positions evaluated so far, no position has more parity than defensive line. In a shocking plot twist, Alabama has had the most players drafted. However, the talent they’ve produced has been barely above average in terms of value. North Carolina’s defensive linemen tend to get drafted early-but they’ve also been average at the next level. USC’s value/player number is impressive, but they haven’t produced a strong defensive line prospect since Leonard Williams came out in 2015 (hopefully Jay Tufele and Marlon Tuipulotu break the trend this year).
For now, the winner looks to be Ohio State. They have consistently produced NFL stars both early in the decade (Cameron Heyward and Michael Bennett) and recently (Nick and Joey Bosa and Chase Young.) Ohio State has two potential mid-round draft picks coming out this year in Tommy Togiai and Jonathon Cooper. If those go on to have productive careers, Ohio State can feel stronger about their “Defensive Line U” title.
“Defensive Line U”: Ohio State
Reliable Indicator: No
LINEBACKER
Finally, we arrive to the position that inspired the exercise-linebacker. Unfortunately for Penn State fans, their team didn’t make the cut (but Penn State product Micah Parsons should be the first linebacker picked this year).
Penn State’s absence has also created a power vacuum that has yet to be filled. As they often do, Alabama leads all schools in players drafted, but their results have been so-so. LSU has had some linebackers go very early in the draft, but their production hasn’t quite matched their draft status. Georgia has produced the most value and that number should only continue to rise as Leonard Floyd, Jordan Jenkins and Roquon Smith continue to come into their own as pro’s. Maybe the real “linebacker U” is Boston College, which in addition to producing great linebackers has also produced some of the world’s greatest NFL Draft bloggers.
This title may come down to whether incoming prospects Dylan Moses of Alabama or Monty Rice of Georgia has the better NFL career. For now, Nick Saban gets another title.
“Linebacker U”: Alabama
Significant Indicator: No
CONCLUSION:
While the data doesn’t say Najee Harris is going to be an automatic pro bowler, or that Aaron Banks should go in the first round, it does suggest that some teams are better at producing talent at certain positions (or in Alabama’s case, every position.) In a league where teams will go to extreme lengths to find out about a prospect, maybe the first place they should look at is their alma matter.