THE BEARS SIGNED ANDY DALTON: NOW WHAT
Examining the Different Paths Chicago Can Take to Return to Relevancy.
Well Bears fans, we will always have this tweet. For 19 glorious days, we got to dream about Russell Wilson throwing touchdown passes on the lakeshore.
Instead of Wilson making fire emoji passes at Soldier Field, the Bears opted for a different kind of fire. After coming to terms with Andy Dalton on day two of the legal tampering period, Chicago will likely be starting their 14th different quarterback since Aaron Rodgers became Green Bay’s full time starter.
Before figuring out what’s next for the Bears, it’s important to take a step back and examine how they got here. Obviously, they made a huge mistake in 2017. However, their decision-making last year may have been even more indefensible.
Going into last offseason, the Bears had about $24 million in cap space, which increased to $37 million after they declined Leonard Floyd’s option. Instead of using some of that cap space one on of the many low cost options available at quarterback, including Dalton, they traded a fourth round pick for sizably more expensive Nick Foles. They did this presumably because they thought he was a good deal better than every other option (hold that thought).
Now, one year later and with zero cap space, the Bears have decided to sign Andy Dalton to a deal that costs nearly twice as much as what they owe Foles. Again, one can only assume they did this because Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy have decided that one year later, Andy Dalton is a now good deal better than Foles, despite the fact they had almost identical numbers last season.
To summarize, instead of signing Dalton to reasonable contract last year, when they had cap space, they decided he was no good. Thus, they traded a valuable asset and paid a large sum of money to Foles because he was supposed to be that much better than Dalton. One year later, they’ve done a complete 360 and now believe that Foles is actually no good, and that Dalton is twice as valuable. They believe this despite, and I can’t emphasize this enough, they were STATISTICALLY THE SAME LAST YEAR. They also have no cap space.
With that out of the way, let’s look at why Wilson was never realistic and where the Bears can go from here.
Why the Bears Were Never Getting Wilson This Year
Here’s what I wrote about Wilson when predicting who would be the starting quarterback for each team next season:
“However, unless their relationship with their star quarterback is beyond repair, it makes zero sense for Seattle to trade Wilson this year. Seattle does not have their first round pick next year and it would be embarrassing if that pick ends up in the top 10. Additionally, at 69 years old, Pete Carroll is not going to want to go through a rebuild, so any Wilson trade is going to require a reliable starting quarterback coming back in return. The Seahawks should work towards surrounding Wilson with more talent, not trading away arguably the greatest player that’s ever played for their franchise.”
Seattle wasn’t moving on from Wilson this year unless things got really ugly. Even then, Seattle would have had to receive a package that made it possible for them to go out and acquire an elite quarterback prospect, which Chicago couldn’t offer. If things continue to go south in Seattle, the Bears can check back in next season-hopefully with a new front office.
As to where the Bears go from here, let’s look at the four most viable contingency plans.
Option 1: Trade for a Second-Tier Quarterback.
There are two realistic trade options for the Bears that would be upgrades over Dalton: Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold.
The case for Garoppolo is simple. He’s a Super Bowl caliber quarterback who at 29, still theoretically has some of his best football years ahead of him. However, acquiring him wouldn’t be cheap. Garoppolo would have $24 million cap hit, so the Bears would be committing $34 million to their quarterbacks next season without any restructuring. Additionally, the Bears would still have to give up at least two draft picks to acquire a player that has only had one full season as a starting quarterback.
The case for Darnold is a bit stronger. His cap hit is minimal this season and we’ve seen quarterbacks thrive once they no longer play for Adam Gase. Darnold is also a former a top five pick who has shown flashes of brilliance. However, there is a larger sample size of Darnold not being a successful quarterback, and while he is affordable this year, he’s due for a big raise after next season. At the end of the day, all acquiring Darnold does for the Bears is allow them to re-create last year’s scintillating quarterback competition, with Darnold playing the Mitch Trubisky role of “flawed former top five pick,” and Dalton replacing Foles as the “steady and uninspiring veteran.”
Option 2: Trade Up in the Draft.
This year is an unusually strong year for quarterback prospects, with at least four quarterbacks expected to be drafted in the top ten.
Unfortunately, therein lies the problem. There are at least five teams (Jacksonville, New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Carolina) in the top ten looking to upgrade at quarterback. If you include San Francisco, New England and Washington, then there are eight teams ahead of the Bears potentially looking to draft a quarterback.
If the Bears are going to jump into the top five, it is probably going to cost them first and second round picks this year and next year. That’s a lot to give up for a prospect that has about a 50% chance of not working out.
A slightly more cost-effective method is moving into the teens to take Mac Jones. Taking Jones in the first round would give the Bears a rookie quarterback to build around, allowing them to make investments in other parts of the roster. The concern is that Jones is not an elite quarterback prospect, and Chicago would have the same limitations at quarterback as they do with Dalton, albeit at a lower cost.
Option 3: Blow it Up
Now that Pace knows they aren’t acquiring an elite quarterback, he really needs to step back and look at what the Bears are. If he does that, what he’ll see is a team that’s on the “mediocrity treadmill.” While often used in basketball, the “mediocrity treadmill” refers to teams that are just good enough to sneak into the playoffs, lose in the first round, and be stuck with a middling draft pick that eliminates the chance to draft a potential superstar. If you substitute superstar with quarterback, the exact same principle applies in football.
That’s exactly where the Bears find themselves. Over the last two seasons, the have compiled a 16-17 record with a -16-point differential. They’ve finished 17th and 15th in DVOA the past two seasons respectively. They are the very definition of mediocre.
Which is all the more reason why they should blow this thing up. Despite their mediocrity, the Bears have plenty of valuable assets. Allen Robinson is a top 10 wide receiver that should be able to fetch a late first round pick or early second rounder, similar to the return Minnesota received for Stefon Diggs last year. Kyle Fuller had a down year last year by his standards, but he’s a year removed from being a back-to-back pro bowler at a premium position. He should be able to fetch a couple of mid round draft picks. If the Bears decide to move on from Akiem Hicks, they may be able to get a late round pick.
Additionally, while it’s foolish to guess how tough a team’s schedule is going to be in March, we do know the Bears have to play the NFC West and the AFC North next year. Last year, the NFC West led all divisions in cumulative DVOA (that is taking the average of the four teams in the division), finished second in winning percentage and second in point differential. In the same categories, the AFC North finished third, first and third. Combine those games with a road trip to Tampa and their annual two losses to Green Bay, and it’s not hard to envision a five- or six-win season even if they don’t blow it up.
Option 4: Tweak the Roster on the Margin and Run a Dalton vs. Foles Quarterback Competition.
Unfortunately, this is the most likely option the Bears end up selecting. Maybe the Bears trade Nick Foles and Anthony Miller for a few late round picks, sign a few low-cost free agents and hope they nail the draft for the first time in Pace’s tenure. If they can’t move on from Foles, their quarterback competition will look like this.
What Should the Bears Do?
While trading up for a franchise quarterback would certainly be tempting, the fact of the matter is the Bears aren’t in a position to outbid the other quarterback needy teams in the NFL. It’s why they couldn’t land Wilson and aren’t serious players for Deshaun Watson.
If the Bears had any coherent plan or faith in their decision-making process, then they would choose to rebuild. We’ve already seen teams such as Buffalo and Miami undergo similar rebuilds following years of mediocrity, and within three years they built their teams into legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Hell, all the Bears need to do is look across town to see how a rebuild can work in Chicago.
Unfortunately, that’s not the Bears way. The McCaskey family has chosen to run the Bears like a mom-and pop shop instead of a $3.5 billion business. They’re more concerned about collaboration than wins and losses. Until that changes, this franchise will always be like their quarterbacks-somewhere between mediocre and embarrassing.