Yes, The Bears should move on from Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields
Why Ryan Poles' Choice is Easier Than We Think
(Photo by: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
While they aren’t technically eliminated yet, the Bears 2023 playoff chances likely came to an end after their third loss of the season in which they blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead. While there’s no doubt the team has made progress, this will be the thirteenth straight year Chicago doesn’t win a playoff game.
Thankfully, all is not lost on the Lakefront. The Bears can head into this off-season knowing they have a legitimate number one wide receiver, a stud defensive end, an extremely young and talented secondary and an improving offensive line. Almost every unit on this Bears team improved during the season and if they move on from Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair as expected, they could have up to $85 million in cap space to work with.
The most important reason Bears fans can and should be optimistic is that they are three Carolina Panthers’ losses away from having the first overall pick for the second consecutive season. Chicago should once again be in position to control the NFL draft, in what is shaping out to be a very special draft class.
With an ascending team, an ample amount of cap space and what will likely be two top ten draft picks, Ryan Poles is in a very envious position. However, before he does anything else he needs to decide on the two most important positions on the team.
The two most polarizing questions amongst Bears right now, and likely in Halas Hall, is whether they should retain head coach Matt Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields. Given the Bears improvement during the season-especially on the defensive side of the ball-one could certainly argue Eberflus has done everything that’s been asked to do, and that he deserves a chance to see this rebuild through to the end. Meanwhile, Fields has improved in nearly every meaningful statistic this season and given that he still has two more cost-controlled seasons, the Bears could easily build an elite roster around him and hope he continues his ascent.
With that said, this decision shouldn’t be that difficult. If the Bears want to win a Super Bowl in the near future, they need to replace both Eberflus and Fields, and there are two huge reasons why.
1. The only way to sustain success in the NFL is with an offensive head coach.
After Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay were hired as head coaches in 2017, the new trend in the NFL was to hire young ascending offensive coordinators as head coach. However, after some high profile failures from coaches such as Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Nagy, offensive coaches have lost some of their luster. There is some belief that hiring a “CEO” type coach is the best route, citing the success of coaches like Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin.
Unfortunately for those making that argument, the numbers don’t back that up. The table below shows the difference between how offensive head coaches have performed vs. defensive coaches since 2018, the year after Shanahan and McVay were hired.
Offensive coaches have been significantly more successful as a head coach than those with a defensive background. In fact, if you exclude the Patriots, a defensive head coach hasn’t even made the Super Bowl since 2016.
You can raise the floor of your team by hiring a defensive coach but the best offensive play-callers in the NFL become head coaches. If you are trying to win a Super Bowl, you need an elite play-caller.
For Bears fans that are still hesitant-let me ask you this. Does Matt Eberflus give the Bears a coaching advantage over Dan Campbell, Kevin O’connell or Matt LaFleur? And if not, doesn’t that make the choice obvious?
2. Quarterbacks taken first overall usually work out.
One of the most used arguments against moving on from Justin Fields is that the draft is a “coin-flip” and teams miss on quarterbacks all the time. That is sort of true. First round quarterbacks don’t always turn out well, and teams do miss on quarterback frequently (although drafting a quarterback in the first round is the only sustainable way to find a quarterback.)
With that said, the first overall pick tends to work out. Since 2011, when the new rookie contract scale was implemented and rookie quarterbacks became a huge market inefficiency, these are how the quarterbacks picked first overall have performed on their rookie contract:
While there are some notable misses on there, the fact is there has been almost fifteen years of evidence to suggest your team is going to finish above 500 and make at least one playoff appearance with a top quarterback prospect. In fact, three of the nine quarterbacks on this list made the Super Bowl on their rookie contract, which is a much higher success rate than quarterbacks on their second contract or rookie quarterbacks drafted anywhere else in the first round. Obviously if the Bears end up with the first pick they would be hugely disappointed if the player they select turns into Jameis Winston or Baker Mayfield, but just about every other quarterback on this list was better during their rookie contract than Justin Fields has been through three seasons (with the jury still very much out on Bryce Young.) Also, both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye would be closer to the Luck, Burrow and Lawrence tier of quarterback prospects than the Winston, Mayfield and Goff tier.
Here's probably the best way to sum up the argument. If you offered the other 29 teams in the NFL the choice between Justin Fields or the first overall pick, odds are nearly all 29 teams would choose the first pick. So why should the Bears be the outlier?
Conclusion
At the end of the day all of these statements can be true. Matt Eberflus is a good defensive coach who did an admirable job kicking off the Bears rebuild. Justin Fields is an improving quarterback who has definitely shown he can be a starter in the NFL. And if the Bears want to maximize their chance to win a Super Bowl, neither Fields or Eberflus should be employed by the Bears in week one of 2024.