(Photo Credit: Fox Sports)
The draft may still be 24 days away, but at this point the first pick of the draft seems to be a foregone conclusion. Bears fans can probably feel comfortable purchasing their Caleb Williams jerseys.
The second pick is an entirely different situation. According to most reports, there are at least three quarterbacks in consideration, and there’s been more fluctuation in the odds of the second pick than almost any other draft prop.
So while we don’t know yet who will be the second pick, the next question is-do we know who should be the second pick? To try and answer that question, let’s examine the case for the three leading contenders.
J.J. McCarthy
If someone had said J.J. McCarthy would be in discussion for the second overall pick back in January, they probably would have been laughed out of the room. However, McCarthy has thus far been this year’s biggest draft riser, with reports making it seem as if it’s a foregone conclusion he won’t make it out of the top ten. But is the hype justified?
My answer:
There’s a lot to like about McCarthy as a prospect. He has a quick release, above average arm strength, and is a very accurate passer on the run. He’s also comfortable attacking the middle of the field, and has an above average pressure-to-sack rate percentage. These are all good characteristics to have in a starting quarterback, especially if he ends up playing in a Shanahan-type offense.
With that said, there are some pretty glaring red flags. His accuracy number’s drop off significantly when throwing outside the hashes-especially when throwing to the left side of the field (Bears fans will remember a certain quarterback who also struggled to throw left.) Those are throws he’s going to have to make in the NFL.
There’s also the experience factor. McCarthy appeared in 40 games during his time at Michigan and racked up an impressive 28-1 record in the 29 games he started. However, despite all that experience, he only attempted 714 passes over the course of his college career. The table below is a list of all the major quarterback prospects over the last eight years that have attempted less than 800 passes during their college career.
There are a few NFL caliber starting quarterbacks on that list (including one great one), but not many. More concerning is that most of the quarterbacks on this list hit their pass attempt numbers in far fewer games than McCarthy (although to be fair, J.J. played in garbage time a lot during his freshman season which inflates his total game numbers.)
While McCarthy’s record at college is often used as a positive when discussing his draft stock, it’s hard to deny the fact that during many of Michigan’s biggest games, the Michigan coaching staff didn’t want the game in their quarterback’s hands. While you can attribute some of that to head coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred playing style and quirky personality, this shouldn’t be a conversation for someone who is being talked about as the second pick in the draft.
Finally, McCarthy’s current consensus draft rank doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The table below shows where McCarthy ranks on consensus boards and what quarterback’s had similar ranks the last ten years:
The game has evolved a lot over the last ten years. Most of the league is now running some variation of Shannahan/McVay offense, which figures to be the offense best suited for J.J.’s skillset. And although there’s no good way to quantify this, nearly every evaluator says his intangibles are off-the-charts.
So where should he get drafted? Once you get past the top ten, there’s not a lot of downsides of taking a flyer on someone like McCarthy. He needs some seasoning but there are enough positives there that he could easily settle in as a solid starting quarterback. I just don’t know what his ceiling is at the next level and there are just too many questions for me to risk using the second overall pick on him.
Best Case: Brock Purdy
Worst Case: Mitch Trubisky
Where I’d take him: Round 2
Where I’d be ok taking him: Middle of Round 1
Should He Go Number 2: No
Jayden Daniels
The current betting favorite to be the second overall pick also has had a meteoric rise up draft boards, but most of that came during the college football season. That’s what happens when you have one of the best statistical seasons of all time and walk away with the Heisman trophy.
While Daniels’ stock has certainly soared and he has a plethora of people championing for him, the praise is not universal. In fact, the analysis of Daniels’ game varies drastically depending on which bucket the evaluator falls in.
The first bucket of evaluators are traditional draft scouts. Think of people like Lance Zierlien, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, etc etc. This group tends to be the highest on Daniels.
That’s because Daniels has many elite traits. He’s one of the most talented rushing quarterback prospects to ever come out of the draft, and he turned a lot of would-be-sacks into big plays. He also throws a very pretty ball, especially on deep passes. Even though he’s reluctant to throw over the middle of the field at times, he’s still shown the ability to step up and make those plays. Finally, Daniels is very protective of the football. In fact, he’s had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate% of any quarterback prospect coming out in the last eight years, as illustrated in the table below.
Scouts are trained to evaluate players based on their traits, and Daniels’ traits are easy to fall in love with. Throw in the fact that he’s improved immensely over his college career, and it’s easy to see why coaches and scouts would talk themselves into him.
There’s a second bucket of scouts though-that I would consider “quarterback specialist” scouts. They may be former players or coaches of the position that can offer more unique/quarterback specific insight. This group tends to be a little more lukewarm. They see many of the same traits as the scouts above them see, but they’ll also point out more of his flaws on tape.
For example, Daniels tends to be a little gun shy when he has to throw over the middle, which might be attributed to the fact that his passes don’t have the strongest arm. He also struggles to get past his first read at times, which causes him to scramble more than he should.
These flaws are reflected in Daniels’ statistical profile, which is where the third group comes in. For the sake of simplicity, this call this group the “analytics” group. This group is definitely the most skeptical of Jayden based on his output.
For starters, Daniels does not handle pressure well. Two of the more stable rates from college are sack rate and pressure-to-sack rate. In both metrics, Daniels is well below average, as highlighted in the charts below.
Daniels also has a high scramble rate when he’s not pressured, all of which point to a quarterback who isn’t adept at maneuvering in the pocket.
You could maybe cough up these struggles to Daniels being young and inexperienced, and that with more time he would grow out of it. But that might be his biggest red flag. Jayden is a 24-year-old quarterback who has been starting in college for five seasons. In fact, he’s literally one of the most experienced quarterbacks to ever declare for the draft, as highlighted in the table below.
Someone with as much experience as Daniels shouldn’t still be struggling to handle pressure the way he does. But what’s most concerning about Daniels’ output is that he didn’t have his breakout season until his fifth and final season in college. The table below is a list of all the quarterbacks who didn’t have their best season until well after they were draft eligible, and what their PFF QB grade would have been had they declared when they first became draft eligible.
The only quarterback with NFL success on this list was Joe Burrow and unlike every other quarterback on this list, Burrow only started for two seasons. Breaking out during your second season as a starter is not a red flag. Not breaking out until your fifth season? Different story.
It's a lot easier to put up great seasons when you’re two-four years older than almost everyone you’re playing against. But as the table above demonstrates, almost none of those quarterbacks have been able to translate their success into the NFL.
The best-case scenario for a prospect like Daniels is Jalen Hurts. Like Daniels, Hurts is a dual threat quarterback who throws a great deep ball but doesn’t attack the middle of the field very often. Also, like Daniels, he saw his production skyrocket once he transferred to a more offensive-friendly college system. Hurts has also obviously found success in the NFL,
But pretty much everything had to go right for Hurts to be successful. First, he was drafted in the second round where he was able to spend most of his rookie season on the bench behind incumbent starter Carson Wentz. Second, Hurts had the luxury of playing for a coach in Shane Steichen who has shown he can get the most out of quarterbacks and build an offense around their talent. Jalen took a step back this season when Steichen was not there. Third, Hurts has spent his entire career playing behind arguably the best offensive line in football and an elite set of pass catching weapons.
Finally, much of Hurts success has been because of his rushing ability, which is something Daniels will need to rely on at the next level as well. However, Hurts is a very thick 223 lbs, whereas Daniels most likely played last season closer to 200 lbs-and already has taken some brutal hits. It is not unreasonable to have durability questions about Jayden.
Daniels deserves a ton of credit for turning himself from borderline day three pick into a presumptive top five selection. He’s also incredibly fun to watch, and every play has a chance to turn into a highlight. But given his style of play and late career breakout, there’s no way I would feel comfortable taking him with the second pick of the draft. Especially when there’s such an obvious better choice.
Best Case: Skinnier Jalen Hurts
Worst Case: Malik Willis
Where I’d take him: Round 2
Where I’d be ok taking him: End of Round 1
Should He Go Number 2: No
Drake Maye
Heading into draft season, I thought most of the discourse around the quarterbacks would have been whether Drake Maye had surpassed Caleb Williams as the presumptive first pick of the draft. While there are many quarterback analysts that I respect that still have that belief, I do not see it. At this point in their careers, Maye appears to be slightly better at some of the pre-snap process, but he’s well below Williams’ skillset in arm talent, accuracy, and creativity. Caleb Williams should absolutely be the first pick in the draft.
But beyond that? To me, Drake Maye is clearly the second-best quarterback in this class and would be a worthy first overall pick in most years. At 21, he’s the second youngest prospect in this class only older than McCarthy. However, unlike McCarthy, Maye’s had elite production. Of the sixty highest rated quarterbacks to get drafted in the last eight years, Maye has the fourth highest big time throw %, as the table below illustrates.
However, that’s not what’s most impressive about Maye. As you can see in the chart above, most quarterbacks with a strong big time throw often have a corresponding red flag. They usually either a.) hold onto the ball too long and have unsustainable sack rates b.) aren’t throwing the ball down field very often so only make those throws if they’re wide open or c.) are committing a lot of turnovers or have a high turnover worthy play percentage.
What makes Maye special is he doesn’t really struggle in any of those areas. His time-to-throw, sack rate and pressure to sack rate are all slightly above average but not in any real danger zone, while his depth of target is well above average. Most impressively, his turnover worthy play rate is the third lowest rate of any of the sixty quarterbacks studied, as illustrated in the following chart.
In other words, you have a quarterback who likes to throw the ball downfield and can do so accurately, who also happens to be smart with the ball and has no problem maneuvering in the pocket. That is a recipe for a very successful quarterback.
Maybe most impressive about Maye is he’s had the level of success he’s had while having a below average supporting cast. He’s never played with a first-round wide receiver or offensive lineman, and North Carolina’s play calling left a lot to be desired.
There’s not anything to dislike about Maye’s game. There are some questions about his footwork which is most likely responsible for some of his missed throws, but he still completed over 63% of his passes. Assuming the footwork is correctable, then it’s very easy to project Maye as a very good starter in the NFL, which you can’t say about any other quarterback prospect in this class outside of Caleb Williams. And that is why he is the clear QB 2.
Best Case: Josh Allen with less turnovers
Worst Case: Drew Lock
Where I’d take him: Top 2
Where I’d be ok taking him: Top 2
Should He Go Number 2: Yes