Welcome back football! Last weekend saw massive upsets, wild comebacks and our first “gate” of the season. With both the college and NFL seasons entering the full swing, here are my five favorite bets in each sport this weekend.
NCAA
Miami vs South Florida
Spread: Miami -17.5; Point Total: 56.5, ML: Miami -750.
Welcome to our first rat line of 2025. Through the first two weeks of the season, South Florida has the best resume in college football. They trounced Boise St as 3.5 underdogs in week one, and then shocked Florida in Gainesville last weekend as 17.5 point underdogs. USF has now risen to 18 in the polls and has received a majority of the betting money placed on this game.
Yet, that’s exactly why this game feels like a rat. Despite most of the money going on USF, the line has shifted from -16.5 to 17.5 in Miami’s favor this week. For as impressive as the Bulls’ start has been, they have been the beneficiary of some turnover luck and they’re the first team to open up the season playing three straight ranked opponents since, ironically, the Miami Hurricanes in 2009. Asking for a third straight upset is a tall ask, especially when they don’t really need to win this game after their strong start to the season.
I wouldn’t bet the spread in this game but I do like the total. This game opened at 54.5 and quickly jumped up to 56.5. The half point scares me a bit, but I still like placing a half unit on the over.
Tennessee vs Georgia
Georgia -3.5; Point Total: 50.5; ML: Georgia -192
Georgia Tech vs Clemson
Clemson -3; Point Total: 51.5; ML: Georgia -192
Two of the biggest games this weekend has also seen two of the biggest line movements of the week. If you were able to grab Tennessee+7 and Georgia Tech +6.5 early in the week, I think there’s some value in trying to buy the middle for a small amount. Otherwise, I’d still take both home underdogs at any number +3.5 or better.
Temple vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma-23.5; Point Total: 51.5; ML: Georgia -1700
This is not one of the biggest games of the weekend, but it is one of the best values. Temple first year head coach K.C. Keeler was one of the best FCS coaches of all time, and the Owls have outscored their opponents 97-17 (against an admittedly weak schedule so far). As for Oklahoma, they’re coming off a physical, primetime victory against Michigan and with upcoming games against Auburn and Texas on the horizon, this is a natural let down spot. I took Temple +24.5 early in the week and you can still grab Temple +23.5 and get great value on this game
California vs. Minnesota
Minnesota-2.5; Point Total: 41.5; ML: Minnesota – 130
Did you know when teams traveled across two or more time zones last season, they went 35-43-2 against the spread? And that favorites were only 10-19-1 in those spots? Throw in the fact that Minnesota looked lackluster against a terrible Buffalo team and that California freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has looked spectacular in the early going, and I like Cal +2.5 and on the money line this week.
Full NCAA SLIP
USF/MIAMI over 56.5 (-110; .55 units)
Tennessee +7 (-110; 1.1 units)
Georgia Tech +6.5 (-110; 1.1 units)
Temple +24.5 (-110; 1.1 units)
Cal +2.5 (-110; .55 units)
Cal ML (+134; .25 units)
Utah St +4.5 (-110; .6 units)
Utah St ML (+165; .4 units)
Bowling Green +5.5 (-110; .6 units)
Bowling Green ML (+170; .25 units)
Tulane -1.5 (-110; 1.1 units)
NFL
Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Atlanta at Minnesota (-3.5)
Las Angeles Charges at LasVegas (+3.5)
If week one is becoming the week of unders, then week 2 might be the week of the underdog. Since 2005, underdogs of 6 points or less have covered the spread 66.7% of the time, suggesting that the books tend to overcorrect a little after week 1. The Titans, Giants and Colts all currently fall in this bucket as well, but these are the three teams I’m rolling with this week. A lot was made last week about how Cincinnati has struggled mightily in week 1 under Zach Taylor, but they’ve been nearly as bad in week 2. As for the Vikings, they were dominated by Chicago throughout most of the game, and I think Michael Penix and Atlanta’s offense is ahead of Minnesota’s at the moment. Finally, while they’ve had two extra days to recover, the Chargers are coming off an emotional victory over Kansas City in week 1 and I’m expecting a bit of let down this week, Therefore, I’m rolling with all 3 underdogs in this spot
Broncos at Colts (+1.5)
So, how about that Bo Nix performance last week? Maybe Sean Payton’s magic formula didn’t crack the code the way he thought it did. All kidding aside, I doubt we see Nix be that bad again this season, but there’s been more bad in his NFL career than good. On the Colts side, it’s one thing to dominate an imploding Miami Dolphins team. It’s quite another going up against maybe the best defense in the NFL. I grabbed under 43.5 early in the week thinking this would drop but I’m surprised it’s held steady at this number. This is a clear under for me
Cleveland at Baltimore (-11.5)
Yes, divisional games can produce weird outcomes. And yes, last year at this time Baltimore ruined everyone’s survivor and had the weirdest result of the season when they lost to the Raiders. But do we really think this Ravens team is going 0-2? A team that passes both the number test and the eye test? The Browns were competitive last week and don’t look like they are going to be as disastrous as some preseason prognostications, but a pissed off Ravens team is not the opponent I would want to face. Not only do I like Baltimore -11.5, but I will also be playing some escalators on this game as well.
NFL Bet Slip:
Jacksonville +3.5 (-110; . 6 units)
Jacksonville ML (+158; .4 units)
Falcons +3.5 (-110; .6 units)
Falcons ML (+160; .4 units)
Raiders +3.5 (-110; .6 units)
Raiders ML (+160; .4 units)
IND/DEN u43.5 (-115, 1 unit)
Ravens -11.5 (-110; 1.1 units)
Ravens -16.5 (+170; .4 units)
Ravens -23.5 (+370; .25 units)
BAL/CLE o44.5 (-120, 1 unit)
ARI/CAR u45.5 (-110; 1.1 unit)