Quarterback Carousel
Who leaves the offseason unhappy about their quarterback-and where might Justin Fields end up?
(Photo Credit: IMAGO)
Today is Part II of my Combine questions series. If you missed part I, you can read it here.
1.) Which Quarterback-Needy Teams Leave Empty Handed
While most of the top quarterback prospects in this class didn’t throw or workout at the combine, they still were able to capture plenty of attention. The buzz out of Indianapolis seems to be that there are now four quarterbacks expected to go in the top ten. Additionally, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield lead a better than average free agent class.
And yet, there still doesn’t seem to be enough quarterbacks to meet the demand of teams that need them. The following teams currently do not have a viable starting quarterback option:
· New England
· Denver
· Las Vegas
· Atlanta
· Washington
The next group have quarterbacks who are viable starters, but are current free agents:
· Minnesota
· Tampa Bay
Finally, this last group has capable starters on their roster, but are in the market for upgrades:
· Chicago
· New York Giants
· Pittsburgh
For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Baker Mayfield resigns with Tampa and Chicago selects Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. Let’s also assume that Washington takes a quarterback at pick two-most likely Drake Maye. Finally, let’s also say the rumored Kirk Cousins-Atlanta Falcons marriage ends up coming to fruition. That now leaves the following teams still in the market for a quarterback:
· New England
· Denver
· Las Vegas
· Minnesota
· New York Giants
· Pittsburgh Steelers
At pick three, New England will have the option of selecting a quarterback in the draft if they want one. They probably should trade down given the barren state of their roster, but I still think a quarterback at pick three is the most likely outcome.
If we remove New England and assume one of the above teams ends up with J.J. McCarthy, that still leaves four teams in the market for an upgrade. One of those teams could reach for a prospect like Michael Penix or Bo Nix, but neither player is considered a first-round talent. Likely, that means there are four teams that are going to have go into next season without a good starting quarterback option.
Of course, there is one more option those four teams could consider. Which leads me to my final question…
2.) Is Justin Fields really going to be a back-up in 2024?
Barring something completely unexpected, Justin Fields has played his last snap for the Chicago Bears. While that is undoubtedly the correct decision, that doesn’t mean Fields is not a capable starting quarterback.
Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of great fits for Fields’ next team. Based on teams’ current draft capital and cap space, the four teams who will probably be left standing in the game of quarterback musical chairs are the Vikings, Raiders, Broncos and Steelers. It’s hard to imagine Poles trading Fields to a division rival, and it’s also not a great scheme fit in Minnesota. I also can’t picture Sean Payton signing up for Justin Fields after having just spent the year playing with a different quarterback who doesn’t throw the ball on time. As for Vegas, I don’t think Luke Getsy is going to sign up for another year with the quarterback that he thinks got him fired (nor do I think Fields would want to play for him.)
That pretty much just leaves Pittsburgh as a potential starting option, with a slight possibility that the Giants or Patriots might view Fields as an option. While I think Fields would be an upgrade over incumbent Kenny Pickett, it would be a huge shift to the type of quarterback Pittsburgh has had over the Tomlin era. Pittsburgh also seems to have their eye on a different potential upgrade.
Unfortunately for Fields, it’s looking more and more plausible that he is going to have to spend 2024 as a backup. In that scenario, the most likely choices would be Philadelphia or Cleveland. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman loves acquiring quarterbacks and because Fields and Hurts have a similar skillset, there wouldn’t have to be schematic adjustment to accommodate Fields. Meanwhile, Fields fits in Cleveland for many of the same reasons. The Browns would also be nuts not to have a high-end backup given the level of talent on their team, and the inability of incumbent starter Deshaun Watson to both stay on the field and perform at a high level.
If I had to guess, I would say Fields ends up in Philadelphia. Current backup quarterback Marcus Mariota is a free agent, and will probably have no shortage of suitors. I also really think Roseman can’t help himself when it comes to adding the quarterback position, and if Fields ends up only costing a day three pick, then he’s going to be acquired at value.
It's a shame it reached this point for Justin because he hasn’t been put in the best position to succeed. I still believe there’s a good chance that someday he has a Geno Smith-like renaissance to his career and become an effective starter.
But as of now, I don’t see it happening this year.