The all-star games are over, the combine is completed, and the first week of free agency has wrapped up. The next forty days are going to be filled with rumors and speculation so before things get too out of control, let’s take a stab at trying to find out what the NFL draft might look like.
1.) Chicago Bears (via Carolina)-Caleb Williams; QB USC
The Justin Fields era finally came to it’s inevitable conclusion this weekend when the Bears sent him to Pittsburgh for a conditional day three pick. While the return is a little disappointing, the best thing for both parties was a clean break. Fields should eventually get an opportunity to become a starter for the Steelers while the deck is now cleared for Chicago to begin the Caleb Williams era.
2. Washington Commanders-Drake Maye; QB North Carolina
Jayden Daniels is currently the betting favorite to be the selection here but I’m not convinced yet. Choosing Daniels over Maye would contradict the way the league has behaved during free agency regarding quarterbacks. Maye is still widely seen as the superior prospect according to consensus boards, and it feels like come April he’ll still be the choice here.
3. **Trade** Minnesota Vikings-JJ McCarthy; QB Michigan
Minnesota receives: 2024 first round pick (3rd overall); 2025 3rd round pick
New England receives: 2024 first round pick (11th overall); 2024 first round pick (23rd overall); 2025 first round pick
After losing Kirk Cousins in free agency and acquiring an additional first round pick this weekend from Houston, the Vikings aren’t hiding from the fact they want a quarterback in this class. The question is how high do they go? Given where the Patriots are in their rebuild, trading down and acquiring the extra picks would be the prudent thing to do. If this trade does get executed, I think Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connel would prefer McCarthy over Daniels.
4. Arizona Cardinals -Marvin Harrison Jr.; WR Ohio State
After losing Hollywood Brown and trading Rondale Moore this offseason, there’s a clear need at wide receiver on the Cardinals roster. I’d be shocked if Harrison isn’t the pick here in April.
5. Las Angeles Chargers-Malik Nabers; WR LSU
Because of salary cap concerns, Las Angeles moved on from both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason, creating a huge void at wide receiver. Ultimately, I think the Chargers’ choice comes down to what New England and Minnesota do. If the Patriots take a quarterback, then I think this is the spot where the Vikings trade up. If Minnesota moves up to three, then the Chargers likely stay put and take the top receiver on their board, which should be Nabers.
6. New York Giants-Jayden Daniels; QB LSU
This is probably his floor, but if any quarterback in this class starts to have a Will Levis-like fall, it’s probably Daniels. He’s a phenomenal athlete who just had one of the best college seasons of all time, but the red flags he displayed in college don’t often get better in the pro’s. The team that drafts him will have to build their offense around his strengths and New York feels like one of the teams most equipped to do so.
7. Tennessee Titans-Joe Alt; OT Notre Dame
After handing out a huge contract to Calvin Ridley last week, Tennessee is probably set at wide receiver at least for the coming year. That clears them to take Alt with pick seven, giving Tennessee a dynamite left side of the offensive line.
8. **Trade** New York Jets-Rome Odunze; WR Washington
New York receives: 2024 first round pick (8)
Atlanta receives: 2024 first round pick (10); 2024 fourth round pick (111); 2025 third round pick
After shoring up the tackle spots with Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith, New York has to add at least one more offensive weapon for Aaron Rodgers and company. This trade allows the Jets to jump ahead of Chicago to grab Odunze. As for Atlanta, there isn’t anyone they need to take at eight who wouldn’t be there at ten, so they might as well pick up some extra draft capital.
9. Chicago Bears-Jared Verse; Edge Florida State
If the Bears can’t land a receiver at pick nine, they will likely look to trade down. However, I can’t see a robust market for this pick if the quarterbacks are receivers are taken. At that point, they’ll likely to their attention to edge. Dallas Turner probably offers more upside, but Verse’s size advantage and ability to turn speed into power makes him a better fit in the eyes of their coaching staff.
10. Atlanta Falcons- Dallas Turner; Edge Alabama
Atlanta’s choice will come down to an edge rusher or cornerback but given their historic futility at finding a quality pass rusher, my guess is Turner’s upside will be too much for the Falcons to pass on.
11. New England Patriots (via Min)-Olu Fashanu; OT Penn State
After trading back with Minnesota, New England can start to address the biggest hole they have on their roster at left tackle. Fashanu is starting to slide down some draft boards, but this feels like a classic case of prospect fatigue. He’s as smooth as pass blocker as any tackle that has come out the last five years, and he’s still only 21 years old.
12. **Trade** Arizona Cardinals-Quinyon Mitchell; CB Toledo
Arizona receives: 2024 first round pick (12th overall); 2024 3rd round pick (76th overall) 2024 fifth round pick (145)
Denver receives: 2024 first round pick (27th overall); 2024 2nd round pick (35th overall); 2024 third round pick (90th overall); 2024 6th round pick (185th)
Here’s a shake-up! Arizona has six picks in the top 90 so they can afford to be a little more aggressive given the lack of front-end talent on their roster. Meanwhile, Denver does not have their second rounder so if they can acquire a second by trading back, they should look to do so. If Arizona pulls this off, they could leave the first round with arguably the best offensive and defensive player in the draft.
13. Las Vegas Raiders-Tailese Fuaga; OT Oregon State
Las Vegas has a huge void at right tackle, but they should have a plethora of options to select from at this pick. Not only is Fuaga probably the best of the bunch, but his tenacity in run blocking is the exact profile fit coach Anonio Pierce is looking for.
14. **Trade** Jacksonville Jaguars-Terrion Arnold; CB Alabama
Jaguars receive: 2024 first round pick (14th overall)
New Orleans receives: 2024 first round pick (17th overall) 2024 fourth round pick (116th overall)
Jacksonville needs a cornerback, and they’ll probably have to jump ahead of Indianapolis to get their guy. Meanwhile, New Orleans has no picks in the third or fourth round this year, so they would love the extra draft capital. There’s a bit of a fall-off in corner talent after Arnold so this feels like the most logical trade.
15. Indianapolis Colts-Brock Bowers; TE Georgia
After getting jumped by Jacksonville, Indianapolis will probably turn their attention to their offense. Bowers might not fit general manager Chris Ballard’s preferred athletic profile, but he’s too good of a player at a position of need for the Colts to pass up here. He would make Anthony Richardson’s life a lot easier.
16. Seattle Seahawks-Jackson Powers-Johnson; IOL Oregon
Seattle has a gaping hole in the interior of their offensive line so while this might be a little rich for Powers-Johnson, the Seahawks need outweighs positional value. Even if it is a bit rich, something tells me they won’t regret this pick given how good of a prospect “JPJ” is.
17.) New Orleans Saints (via Jax)-Troy Fautanu; OT Washington
New Orleans could go with help on either line but I suspect they would lean tackle here. There’s a better chance of finding an impact defensive lineman in round two, and the Saints need a new left tackle.
18.) Cincinnati Bengals-Amarius Mims; OT Georgia
The Bengals lost starting right tackle Jonah Williams to free agency last week but they didn’t make a strong effort to re-sign him. Pairing Mims with left tackle Orlando Brown would give the Bengals two big, athletic tackles to help protect Joe Burrow.
19. Las Angeles Rams-Byron Murphy; IDL Texas
After Aaron Donald’s surprise retirement announcement, defensive line became a glaring need for Las Angeles. Obviously Murphy isn’t going to replicate Donald’s production, but he’s still an elite prospect at a position of need.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers-Brian Thomas JR; WR LSU
Pittsburgh has a hole at wide receiver after trading Diontae Johnson to Carolina, and considering the quarterbacks they just acquired, they should be targeting receivers that can get behind the defense. Pairing Thomas with George Pickens would allow Russell Wilson or Justin Fields to play to their strengths and attack the field vertically.
21. **Trade** Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Laiatu Latu; Edge UCLA
Tampa Bay Receives: 2024 first round pick (21)
Miami Receives: 2024 first round pick (26); 2024 Third Round Pick (92)
Miami needs picks and they need more players on rookie contracts, so they will be shopping this pick aggressively. Meanwhile, Tampa acquired an additional third round pick this year when they traded Carlton Davis to Detroit, so they can be aggressive to acquire the most polished pass rusher in the class.
22. Philadelphia Eagles-Nate Wiggins; CB Clemson
Even after brining back C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency, Philadelphia needs to keep adding to their secondary. The pick probably comes down to Wiggins or Cooper DeJean, with Wiggins being the slight favorite.
23. **Trade** Cincinnati Bengals-Jer’Zhan Newton; IDL Illinois
Cincinnati receives: 2024 first round pick (23)
New England receives: Tee Higgins
Another blockbuster! It’s going to be nearly impossible for the Bengals to give Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins the contracts they deserve and, in all likelihood, Higgins is going to be the odd man out. Cincinnati may give it one more go with their current core but if they want to maximize their return then they should be open to a trade. Meanwhile, New England desperately needs a number one receiver and using the 23rd pick in the draft to acquire one is a good use of resources. This also would free up the Bengals to take D.J Reader’s replacement in Newton.
24. Dallas Cowboys-JC Latham; OT Alabama
Dallas lost two staters on the offensive line last week, so they have some work to do if they still want that to be a strength. Getting Latham at pick 24 is good value as he could be a plug-and-play option at tackle or guard next year,
25. Green Bay Packers-Tyler Guyton; OT Oklahoma
This would be the seventh offensive tackle taken in the first round and while Guyton is probably the most raw of the bunch, his upside doesn’t make this too big of a reach. Green Bay could use some more depth at tackle after finally cutting David Bakhtiari last week as well.
26. Miami Dolphins (via TB)-Graham Barton; IOL Duke
Miami lost Robert Hunt last week to Carolina, so an already week interior offensive line got even weaker. Barton might not posses as much upside as some as the other linemen in this class but he could realistically start almost anywhere on the offensive line and that versatility makes him a good fit in Miami.
27. Denver Broncos (via Arizona)-Cooper DeJean; CB Iowa
After trading down with Arizona, Denver is still able to land a very talented secondary prospect. DeJean could easily play as a corner across from Patrick Surtian, but his best position might be safety, where he could help fill the loss of Justin Simmons.
28. Buffalo Bills-Adonai Mitchell; WR Texas
Buffalo will be doing backflips if Mitchell falls here on draft night. He has the most upside of any receiver outside the top three and would give Buffalo a good insurance option if they do need to move on from Stefon Diggs sooner rather than later.
29. Detroit Lions-Chop Robinson; Edge Penn State
The Lions addressed the two biggest weaknesses on their defense when they acquired D.J. Reader and Carlton Davis. The last thing they need is one more solid edge rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson. Robinson doesn’t have the most refined game, but he’s an athletic freak who at worst should be able to carve out a career as a pass rush specialist.
30. Baltimore Ravens-Kool-Aid McKinstry; CB Alabama
Baltimore sneakily has a lot of areas they need to address but this is a team that historically maximizes their draft value and works the post-June 1 free agency period very well. I expect this year to be no different and McKinstry should be a solid day one starter.
31. San Francisco 49ers-Zach Frazier; IOL West Virginia
Frazier would be the tenth offensive linemen to be selected in round one but that speaks to just how many teams need help there and how good this class is. Better interior offensive line play might have been enough for the 49ers to win the Super Bowl this year so if Frazier can make an impact in year one, it might be enough to push San Francisco across the finish line.
32. Kansas City Chiefs-Ladd McConkey; WR Georgia
Kansas City took an important first step in improving their pass catching options by swapping out Marques Valdez-Scantling for Hollywood Brown, but they could use one more impact receiver. McConkey would thrive in this offense and truthfully the rest of the league should do everything in their power to not let this happen.