NFL draft season means a lot of things. For many fanbases, it’s a time for hope. For many commentators, it’s a time for aggressively bad takes. For prospects, it’s a chance for dreams to come true.
Thanks to the rise of legalized gambling, it’s also a chance for football fans and professional gamblers to tap into another market. Most major sports-books offer odds on everything from who the first pick of the draft will be, to what position the last player of the draft will be.
While there’s no formula like DVOA to predict draft results, there is very good historical data that helps identify trends. And it’s precisely that reason that I do think there are some inefficiencies that can be exploited.
So this year, I thought I would keep a running tally of every bet I’m placing, as well as explanation why. Hopefully, we can have some fun and make a little extra cash.
(Note: I am not a professional handicapper, and this is meant to provide entertainment and should be viewed as that and nothing more. If you choose to participate in sports betting or gambling, I encourage you to do so responsibly with the understanding that success is not guaranteed and that you risk the loss of some or all of monies used when betting on sports or gambling of any kind. You cannot hold me responsible for any such losses. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.
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First, here are two bets that I placed at the conclusion of the college football season:
1. Drake Maye First Overall Pick: .6 units
a. Was +550 (DraftKings-DK)
b. Now: +1100 (FanDuel-FD)
Explanation: At the time I placed this bet, Maye’s draft stock was seemingly rising while Caleb Williams was struggling as USC’s season was imploding. While I still thought Williams was the better prospect would still be picked first overall, at +550 I thought there was good value on Maye.
This eventually got all the way down to +300, but over the course of the last three months Williams’ draft stock has shot back up, while Maye’s has been mysteriously falling (more on that in a second.) At this point it seems like a lock that Williams will be the first pick so I probably wouldn’t play anything on this prop.
2. Malik Nabers first non-quarterback selection: .2 units
a. Was: +7500 (DK)
b. Now: +1000 (ESPNBET)
Explanation: Here’s how you can find value in the draft. Marvin Harrison Jr. will likely (and should) be the first non-quarterback selected. He’s the best WR prospect in probably at least a decade, and he should be a top ten receiver the minute he enters the league. However, if Harrison wasn’t in this draft, we’d be saying many of the same things about Nabers. While he’s not as polished as Harrison, Nabers is more explosive and apparently is higher on at least some teams’ boards. If God forbid something happens to Harrison during the draft process, Nabers will likely become the favorite to be the first non-quarterback selected (although not as heavy as a favorite as Harrison.) Getting this in at 75-1 was huge value, and I’d also be ok if you wanted to play a quarter unit at his current odds of +1000.
Current plays:
Every bet on here moving forward were plays I made after the NFL Season concluded. I’ll also include the date the bet was placed for transparency purposes.
Drake Maye 2nd overall pick (-150 FD): 2 units (February 12, 2024)
Explanation: Right now, the media buzz is that Maye and Jayden Danies are interchangeable on draft boards. However, I think that is largely due to recency bias. Daniels had an unbelievable season in 2023 but that was after four very non inspiring seasons, and a deeper dive reveal some major red flags. Meanwhile, Maye took a small step back in 2023 compared to his 2022 season, but that’s largely because of a weaker supporting cast. This line might continue to shrink so if you want to hold off and find a better line go ahead but I’m good playing this at anything -175 or better.
JJ McCarthy 2nd overall pick (+5000): .1 units (February 20, 2024)
Explanation: I personally think the McCarthy hype is getting out of control, but the league seems to be infatuated by him. All indications are that he is going to nail his interviews so if he has an impressive combine and/or pro-day, McCarthy seems to have a shot to be in the QB2 discussion. I wouldn’t play much here but at 50-1, throwing down .1 units with a chance to win 5 is a good ROI bet.
Caleb Williams/Drake Maye to 1st/2nd (-120): 2.4 Units
Jayden Daniels 2nd overall: (+185) .5 units
I remain pretty bullish on the fact that Williams/Maye are going to be the first two picks in the draft, and both the combine and betting markets are starting to reflect that. This afternoon, we’ve seen Maye’s odds of being selected 2nd overall move from -135 to -180 on FanDuel. Getting almost even odds for a Williams and Maye seems is probably the best value we’ll see all draft season which is why I placed the larger bet. With that said, having 4.4 units exposed on one bet is a little more than I’d like, so I’m hedging a little with Daniels at +185. I’ll continue to monitor the Daniels’ odds, with the hope that I can use another .5 units on an even better payout.
Caleb Williams/Drake Maye/JJ McCarthy 1/2/3 (+900): .25 units
JJ McCarthy 3rd overall: (+850): .25 units
The JJ McCarthy hype train continues to roll along while there seems to be some buzz that Jayden Daniels stock might be dropping. Additionally, all the noise coming out of New England is they want a quarterback at #3. McCarthy at QB3 is priced much better than Daniels, so here are my two favorite ways to play it.
Joe Alt First Offensive Linemen: (-160-DK) : 1 unit
Strictly a value play here. Joe Alt is pretty much the unanimous top offensive linemen in this draft and barring an injury, he’s very likely going to be the first linemen selected. I actually played this at -190 on FD, but it’s now down to -160 on DraftKings
Malik Nabers 5th Overall Pick (+255;ESPNBET) 1 Unit
Rome Odunze 5th Overall Pick (+500; ESPNBET) 1 Unit
After tonight’s breaking news that Las Angeles is trading Keenan Allen to Chicago and yesterday’s release of Mike Williams, the Chargers have a huge need at WR. I still think there’s a chance LA trades back but in all like likelihood that trade up would probably be for one of these receivers as well. If you want to fully protect yourself you could spring .25 units on McCarthy at +750 but I’m going to keep it to the WR’s here.
Jer’Zhan Newton 1st Defensive Player (+10000; FanDuel) .1 unit
Here’s the logic. I do think there’s a chance the first eight players selected are all offense. In that scenario, all four quarterbacks would be selected, the top three receivers would be gone, and probably the top tackle (Joe Alt.) I also think in this scenario, there’s a chance that a team would trade up to eight with Atlanta to take that quarterback.
If that happens, that leaves Chicago at pick nine without a viable trade partner or a wide receiver worth selecting. In this scenario, the Bears would likely take the top defensive player on their board. And because of size concerns, I don’t think that player would be Dallas Turner-the current favorite to be the first defensive player selected. I also don’t think it would be any of the cornerbacks given how deep Chicago is at that position.
So that leaves three viable alternatives: Jared Verse (+700), Byron Murphy (+1500) or Jer’Zhan Newton at 10000. Based on current consensus boards, Newton should not be that much further behind Verse and Murphy, especially given how much coach Matt Eberflus values the 3-tech position. It’s definitely a long shot, but it shouldn’t be a 100-1 long shot.
Under 4.5 QB’s taken in first round(+200; DraftKings) 1 unit
There are four first round caliber quarterbacks in this class. The other two being discussed (Michael Penix JR and Bo Nix) are older, physically limited players that tend to be drafted on day two. The media also overstates how many quarterbacks go in round one every year. There are enough quarterback-needy teams that it’s certainly possible someone reaches for Penix or Nix, but it’s not a 66.7% chance like the sportsbooks are saying.
Indianapolis Colts First Position: Defensive/Edge (+600 DraftKings) .5 units
Indianapolis’ defensive line is getting a little older and they supposedly pursued Daniele Hunter aggressively this offseason. Colts general managers Chris Ballard has a track record of going after athletic, traits-over-production players in the draft so I bet he would love to land either Dallas Turner or Jared Verse in the draft.
JC Latham 2nd OL Drafted (+500 DraftKings) .5 units
Troy Fautanu 2nd OL Drafted (+550 Draftkings) .5 units
I think Joe Alt is pretty much a lock to be the first offensive linemen drafted, but I think OL2 is very much up for grabs. I really like the value here for both Fautanu and Latham for a variety of reasons. First of all, these are the current over/under draft positions for the the top four tackles after Alt:
-Tailese Fuaga: O/U 13.5
-Olu Fashanu: O/U 14.5
-JC Latham: O/U 14.5
-Troy Fautanu: O/U 15.5
Clearly the books think it’s more or less a toss-up. However, if you look at their odds to be the 2nd OL drafted, Fuaga is at +140 and Fashanu is at +200, as compared to the two bets at the top. I definitely think you’re getting good value banking on Latham and Fautanu.
2nd, I think they both make sense from a football standpoint. Fautanu and Fuaga both have questions whether or not they’ll be tackles in the pro’s but Fautanu has left tackle experience, which is still more valued than right tackle by talent evaluators. Meanwhile, if Las Angeles trades down from five as expected, I think there’s a good chance they’ll be targeting a right tackle which makes Fuaga or Latham the most likely choice. Ultimately I feel pretty good about the value I’m getting here so I’ll split my unit and take a chance that one of these hits.
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Byron Murphy 1st Defensive Player Drafted (+800 DraftKings) 1 unit
Depending on the book, Murphy has moved to the slight favorite to be the first defensive player drafted so if you like this play, I hope you grabbed it when I posted it on Twitter (or +1500 when I did my Newton write-up). Murphy is getting a lot of buzz and if the first eight picks go offense and the Bears cant find a trade partner, I truly do believe he’ll be the pick at 9. Even if Atlanta stays at eight, I think there’s a better than 11% chance Murphy is the pick.
JC Latham 5th overall pick (+2800 DraftKings) .25 units
I think the Chargers are going to trade down form pick five but if they stay here, I think there’s a very real chance Latham is the pick. In Fact, Daniel Jeremiah has Latham to the Chargers at 5 in his last mock draft. The odds have shifted on this dramatically as well, so for a quarter of unit I think this was good value.
Xavier Worthy to be drafted by the Colts (+700 Colts) .5 units
Lots of smoke that the Colts love Worthy so at +700 I don’t mind laying 1/2 a unit here-especially considering we also have some exposure on Colts taking a defensive lineman in the first round.
Jackson Powers-Johnson over pick 31.5 (+150 DraftKings) 1 unit
Centers tend to get drafted than their consensus rank and Johnson is 31st on most consensus boards. Throw in that there’s apparently some injury history questions and I think it’s more likely than not he goes in round two, so I like that I’m getting +odds here.
Drake Maye 3rd overall* (-190 ESPNBET) tbd
The exposure I’d play here depends on what else you have, and when you took it. I have McCarthy at +850 to be the third overall pick for only a quarter of a unit so a win there only earns + 2 units. Therefore I’m playing Maye for 1.1 units here meaning if either Maye or McCarthy are at pick three (which at this point who else,) I’m making some profit here. Adjust your exposure accordingly