It’s that time of year again where everyone should be reminded that a.) no one is good at drafting and b.) teams should be relying on consensus boards to make their picks. But on the other hand…content.
I’ll be the 5000th person to reiterate that this class is not great. In fact, it is far inferior to last year’s class-and that’s not just at quarterback. But that shouldn’t take away from the fact that some lives are about to change for 262 individuals.
With that said, let’s dive into how I view the top 100 players of this year’s class. In addition to my personal ranking, I’ll also include where they fall on this year’s mega board. As a reminder, my tiers are as follows:
· Tier 1: no brainer first-round prospect; future pro bowler
· Tier 2: solid first-round prospect; solid NFL starter.
· Tier 3: Second-round prospect; Low-ceiling starter, developmental starter or overqualified backup.
· Tier 4: Late second/early third round prospect; ceiling=NFL Starter, Floor=bust
· Tier 5: Third-round prospect; Hopeful starter but probably backup/quality special teams contributor.
· Tier 6: Late third/early fourth-round prospect; High quality backup but can be a spot starter or rotational piece
Tier 1:
1.) Kyle Hamilton; S Notre Dame; (S 1; Big Board rank: 4)
There is no doubt in my mind that Hamilton is the best player in this class and the only prospect that I feel confident is a perennial pro-bowler. Hamilton’s ceiling is the best safety in the NFL. My only concern with him is if last year’s injury is the reason his 40-yard dash time was slower than expected, and he truly has lost a step.
Tier 1.5
2.) Kayvon Thibodeux; Edge Oregon (Edge 1; Big Board Rank: 5)
I’m cheating by creating a tier 1.5, but while these next eight players are a tier better than the players ranked below them, I don’t view them as highly as I viewed last year’s first tier. With that said, despite how much he may love crypto, Thibodeux is the best edge rusher in this class and is the only prospect I’d feel good about someday becoming a consistent double-digit sack player.
3.) Aidan Hutchinson; Edge Michigan (Edge 2; Big Board Rank: 1)
The most likely first overall pick is probably not going to be as dominant as other edge rushers selected in the top 5, but his floor is undeniable. I can’t envision a scenario where the team that drafts Hutchinson has a lot of regrets.
4.) Ikem Ekonwu: OT NC State (OT 1; Big Board Rank: 2)
He may be a little undersized but Ekonwu is an absolute mauler. Similar to Hutchinson, his floor makes him impossible to pass up in the top 5.
5.) Ahmad Gardner; CB Cincinnat (CB 1; Big Board Rank: 6)
The more I watch Gardner the more I like him. He has the physical and mental make-up you want from a cornerback. I truly would have no qualms with Jacksonville taking him first overall.
6.) Evan Neal; OT Alabama (OT 2; Big Board Rank: 3)
Unlike Ekonwu, there are no size concerns with Neal. He wasn’t as dominant as his physique suggests he could be, but Neal is another high floor prospect who should have a long NFL career
7.) Tyler Linderbaum; C Iowa (IOL 1; Big Board Rank: 14)
The fact that there’s a chance Linderbaum might not go in round one is a classic example of NFL teams overthinking this. He may be the best center prospect ever. Even in a strong class that should warrant at least a top 20 selection. If he falls past pick 15, many teams are going to regret it.
8.) Charles Cross; OT Mississippi State; (OT 3; Big Board Rank:8)
He might not be as physically imposing as Ekonwu and Neal, but if you’re looking for a tackle who isn’t going to give up many sacks than Cross is for you. If he falls out of the top ten, expect teams to start trying to trade up for him.
9.) Derek Stingley Jr; CB LSU (CB 2; Big Board Rank: 7)
Outside of Hamilton, Stingley has the highest upside in the draft. If he’s the best cornerback in the NFL in five years I wouldn’t be shocked. With that said, his two biggest red flags are a.) Serious foot injury and b.) Didn’t try very hard for two of his three seasons in college. That’s enough to at least entertain some doubt.
TIER 2:
10.) George Karlaftis; Edge Purdue; (Edge 3; Big Board Rank: 17)
Karlaftis doesn’t have the bend or pure pass rush moves you’d want from a top ten pick but he is an absolute animal in the trenches. In the right scheme, you’re looking at someone who’s going to be dominant against the run and a very productive member of a pass rush rotation. In this class, that’s a top ten prospect.
11.) Jordan Davis; IDL Georgia; (IDL 1: Big Board Rank: 15)
By now if you’re reading this article you’re aware of who Jordan Davis is. After all, there is probably only one human on the planet that can run a 4.78 40-yard dash at 360 lbs. I understand the concerns about his pass rush and conditioning but there’s never been a better athlete at his size in NFL history. His floor seems to be Vita Vea-and you can ask Tampa how that’s worked out.
12.) Trent McDuffie; CB Washington (CB 3; Big Board Rank: 12)
If you’re looking for a cornerback who is instinctual, athletic, and completive as hell then McDuffie is your guy. Yes, his wingspan is a little underwhelming but it’s very hard to envision a scenario where McDuffie isn’t an impactful player at the next level.
13.) Jermaine Johnson; Edge Florida State (Edge 4; Big Board Rank: 16)
As a Boston College season ticket holder, the most fun player I got to see live this season was Jermaine Johnson. He’s already very solid against the run and seemed to improve every week as an edge rusher. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make it past the Jets at 10.
14.) Jameson Williams; WR Alabama (WR 1; Big Board Rank: 11)
15.) Treylon Burks; WR Arkansas (WR 2; Big Board Rank: 22)
16.) Drake London; WR USC (WR 3; Big Board Rank: 10)
17.) Garrett Wilson; WR Ohio State (WR 4; Big Board Rank: 13)
18.) Chris Olave; WR Ohio State (WR 5; Big Board Rank: 18)
I’m not sure any of these five receivers are future number ones, but I feel incredibly confident they are all going to be productive number two’s. Had Williams not torn his ACL in the national title game he’d be the consensus number one-and it appears that he might be heading that way anyway. Burks and London disappointed some evaluators with their testing, or in London’s case, lack-there-of, but you can’t watch their tape and not conclude they’re going to be productive NFL players. Finally, Ohio State has been a wide receiver factory in recent years and Wilson and Olave might be the most heralded of the group. None of these guys should get drafted in the top ten, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re all gone before pick twenty.
19.) Travon Walker; Edge Georgia (Edge 5; Big Board Rank: 9)
Walker is the biggest riser in this year’s class and is now the second biggest favorite to be selected first overall. That’s what happens when you have arguably the greatest testing score of any edge rusher in draft history. With that said, as the old cliché goes, there’s a reason they play the games. Right now, there’s no football evidence that Walker will become an elite pass rusher. His athleticism and instincts ensure that there’s a high floor. But taking him in the top five is a colossal risk.
20.) Devonte Wyatt; IDL Georgia (IDL 2; Big Board Rank: 20)
Assuming the off-field concerns with Wyatt check out, he’s the best 3-technique tackle in the draft. Whatever team ends up with him is getting a very good football player.
21.) Nakobe Dean; LB Georgia (LB 1; Big Board Rank: 21)
On a defense that was loaded with NFL talent (as evidenced by mine and every other big board out there), Dean was consistently the best player on that defense last year. Inside linebackers like Dean that offer limited pass rush skills are not as valuable as they used to be, but he’s going to be a future MIKE and captain for somebody. If he falls to round two, his future employer will have hit the jackpot.
22.) David Ojabo; Edge Michigan (Edge 6; Big Board Rank: 33)
Had Ojabo not torn his Achilles on his pro day, we’d be talking about him as a top fifteen pick. The fact that he is considered one of the more raw prospects, after collecting 11.5 sacks last season, tells you the type of talent that we’re dealing with here.
TIER 3:
23.) Zion Johnson; Guard Boston College (IOL 2; Big Board Rank: 25)
24.) Kenyon Green; Guard Texas A&M (IOL 3; Big Board Rank: 26)
These two don’t offer the upside of anyone above them on the big board but you’re looking at two players who are going to be ten-year starters for the teams that draft them. That’s enough to warrant late first/early second round selections.
25.) Roger McCreary; CB Auburn (CB 4; Big Board Rank: 49)
26.) Andrew Booth; CB Clemson (CB 5; Big Board Rank Rank: 23)
We have reached my first two pound-the-table-for prospects. I suspect neither player is going to get selected round one but both are for different reasons. No one denies Booth’s talent but injury concerns seem to have him slipping. Meanwhile, lackluster arm length and testing numbers are the reason for McCreary’s second round grade. From my perspective it’s simple. As long as Booth stays healthy, he’s an impact player at the next level. As for McCreary, all he’s done the past two seasons is be the best cornerback in the toughest conference in college football. His floor is a dominant nickel back. Anyone who drafts McCreary is making their team better immediately.
27.) Jahan Dotson; WR Penn State (WR 6; Big Board Rank: 32)
Speaking of pound-the-table players, Dotson is lacking the hype of some of the receivers who are slotted above and below him, but that shouldn’t cloud teams judgment. Dotson is a day one starter who is going to be a very good NFL receiver. No need to overthink this one.
28.) Arnold Ebiketie; Edge Penn State (Edge 7; Big Board Rank: 34)
29.) Daxton Hill; S Michigan (S 2: Big Board Rank: 30)
30.) Devin Lloyd; LB Utah (LB 2: Big Board Rank: 19)
Lloyd seems to be the consensus number one linebacker and he has many of the traits you’d want in an inside linebacker. However, I’m not sure how much better he is than some of his peers in this class and given the lack of positional value off ball linebackers have in today’s NFL, I’m not sure why he’s getting so much top fifteen hype.
31.) Kaiir Elam; CB Florida (CB 6; Big Board Rank: 29)
32.) Travis Jones; IDL Connecticut (IDL 3; Big Board Rank: 37)
33.) Malik Willis; QB Liberty (QB 1; Big Board Rank: 27)
The first quarterback in my rankings is not even a top thirty-two prospect. Willis is the only quarterback in this class that has elite traits and he will be the second best rushing quarterback in the NFL as soon as he takes his first snap. But he was not good this past season even in a weak conference and his future projection seems more towards a “rich man Jalen Hurts” than elite quarterback in the NFL.
34.) Trevor Penning; OT Northern Iowa (OT 4; Big Board Rank: 24)
Penning is almost certainly getting drafted in the first round Thursday and probably in the top twenty. While he’s a great athlete and has the “nasty” demeanor teams look for in an offensive tackle, I don’t really see it with him. He’s also going to be 24 in the fall and he didn’t really dominate his competition despite playing in division II. Combine that with his propensity to commit penalties and his mediocre performance at the Senior Bowl, and we’re looking at more of a round two prospect than top fifteen pick.
35.) Kyler Gordon; CB Washington (CB 7; Big Board Rank: 50)
36.) Desmond Ridder; QB Cincinnati (QB 2; Big Board Rank: 28)
Maybe the most underrated quarterback prospect, Ridder is the most pro-ready prospect in this class. With that said, NFL Draft Twitter may be a little too high on him. He struggles with accuracy (as does everyone else in this class), doesn’t have a great arm and doesn’t play as athletic as his testing suggests. He’s the type of quarterback who should be good right away but whose value disappears the minute his rookie contract is over.
37.) Bernhard Raimann; OT Central Michigan (OT 5; Big Board Rank: 35)
38.) George Pickens; WR Georgia (WR 7; Big Board Rank: 35)
If Pickens is 100% he could be the steal of the draft. He was wide receiver one heading into the year before he hurt his Achilles and has the best traits of any receiver in this class.
39.) Jaquan Brisker; S Penn State (S 3; Big Board Rank: 38)
40.) Jalen Pitre; S Baylor (S 4; Big Board Rank: 45)
41.) Skyy Moore; WR Western Michigan (WR 8; Big Board Rank: 40)
All three of these players aren’t going to wow anyone but they are all going to be very useful players in the NFL.
Tier 4:
42.) Quay Walker; LB Georgia (LB 3; Big Board Rank: 43)
43.) Chad Muma; LB Wyoming (LB 4; Big Board Rank: 63)
The best case against taking Nakobe Dean or Devin Lloyd in round one are the skillsets of Walker and Muma. While they aren’t as good as Dean or Lloyd, they’re both better athletes that can give teams similar production. Therefore, why spend a top twenty pick on Dean or Lloyd if you can grab one of these two players at pick 50.
44.) Lewis Cine; S Georgia (S 5; Big Board Rank: 47)
Cine is going to be a fine NFL player but that’s not what interests me. What interests me is that he’s the 44th ranked player on my big board-and the sixth ranked player from his own defense (with more to come.)
45.) Nik Bonnito; Edge Oklahoma (Edge 8; Big Board Rank: 53)
46.) Drake Jackson; Edge USC (Edge 9: Big Board Rank: 64)
47.) Boye Mafe; Edge Minnesota (Edge 10: Big Board Rank: 42)
48.) Leo Chenal; LB Wisconsin (LB 5: Big Board Rank: 59)
49.) Christian Harris; LB Alabama (LB 6: Big Board Rank: 51)
50.) Kenny Pickett; QB Pittsburgh (QB 3; Big Board Rank: 31)
51.) Matt Corrall; QB Ole Miss (QB 4; Big Board Rank: 46)
Corall and Pickett are two of the more hyped quarterback prospects in this draft, but they both have major flaws. Much ado has been made about Pickett’s hand size but I’m more concerned that he wasn’t good in college until he turned 23 and dominated a weak ACC. Meanwhile, Corall pretty much only ran RPO’s this past season which means his coach didn’t love the idea of him being able to just throw the ball. Both players have the potential to go round one but I’m not sure where the value is in taking either player.
52.) Jalen Tolbert; WR South Alabama (WR 9; Big Board Rank: 65)
53.) David Bell; WR Purdue (WR 10; Big Board Rank: 76)
54.) Christian Watson; WR North Dakota State (WR 11; Big Board Rank: 54)
55.) John Metchie III; WR Alabama (WR 12; Big Board Rank: 71)
Four very different receivers who are all perceived very differently. Tolbert is probably the least polarizing of the bunch as everyone seems to agree he should be a good wide receiver in the NFL. Bell and Watson are complete opposites. Bell dominated during his college football career as was, in the words of 2021 first round pick Greg Newsome, “the best wide receiver he ever went up against.” However, his testing was very bad and his lack of athleticism does show on tape.
Meanwhile, Watson didn’t put up huge numbers for a division II team but he had a great senior bowl and great testing numbers. Watson and Bell are a perfect example of the dilemma teams face during the draft. Should they trust their eyes, or their testing scores. Ultimately, I’ll always lean towards someone who had more production-especially in a good conference like the Big Ten. Finally, Metchie was overshadowed by his teammate Jameson Williams this past year but he’s a very good receiver.
56.) Phidarian Mathis; IDL Alabama (IDL 4; Big Board Rank: 60)
57.) Perrion Winfrey; IDL Oklahoma (IDL 5: Big Board Rank: 56)
58.) Logan Hall; IDL/Edge Houston (Edge 11; Big Board Rank: 39)
Logan Hall gets the most hype of these three but I didn’t see Hall dominate either from the interior or edge position in a pretty weak conference. Meanwhile, Winfrey has better testing than Mathis but Mathis was the superior player on tape last season. All three players are probably worth late day 2 picks for different reasons.
59.) Myjai Sanders; Edge Cincinnati (Edge 12; Big Board Rank: 89)
I understand the concerns about Sanders’ weight and he didn’t dominate this past season but boy is he hard to miss on tape. Something tells me there’s more to his and that he’s going to be a very productive player at the next level
60.) Demarvin Leal; IDL Texas A&M (IDL 7; Big Board Rank: 57)
Leal was getting top-ten hype before the season but he didn’t have a great season and it’s hard to peg exactly what position he’ll play in the NFL. His talent still makes him a worthy flyer, but he probably lost millions of dollars this past season.
61.) Breece Hall; RB Iowa State; (RB 1; Big Board Rank: 41)
62.) Kenneth Walker; RB Michigan State (RB 2; Big Board Rank: 36)
Far and a way the two best running backs in this draft, most people view these two as high second-round picks. While I like both players, neither seems to have anything special about them and if you’re a running back without any special quality, I’m not sure you should be selected before round three.
TIER 5:
63.) Kingsley Enagbare; Edge South Carolina (Edge 13; Big Board Rank: 72)
64.) Camerton Thomas; Edge San Diego State (Edge 14; Bog Board Rank: 73)
65.) Martin Emerson; CB Mississippi State (CB 8; Big Board Rank: 122)
Emerson has been plummeting down draft boards this spring and I don’t understand why. He has great size, good testing numbers and a high football IQ. Mississippi State only asked him to play zone so there’s not a lot of tape of him playing man but if you’re a team that plays primarily cover 2 or cover 3, there’s no reason Emerson should last past round three.
66.) Channing Tindall; LB Georgia (LB 7; Big Board Rank: 85)
67.) Troy Andersen; LB Montana (LB 8; Big Board Rank: 81)
68.) Alec Pierce; WR Cincinnati (WR 13; Big Board Rank: 79)
69.) Daniel Faalele; OT Minnesota (OT 6; Big Board Rank: 62)
70.) Khalil Shakir; WR Boisie State (WR 14; Big Board Rank: 67)
71.) Sam Howell; QB North Carolina; (QB 5; Big Board Rank: 55)
Howell entered the season with first round vibes, but his up and down season highlighted a lot of his weaknesses. He’s a tough kid who likes to run but with his limited size and speed that style of play work in the NFL. He could have a nice career as a backup though.
72.) Josh Pascal; Edge Kentucky (Edge 15; Big Board Rank: 58)
73.) Dylan Parham; IOL Memphis (IOL 4; Big Board Rank: 68)
74.) Darrian Kinnard; IOL Kentucky (IOL 5; Big Board Rank: 66)
75.) Cole Strange; IOL Chattanooga (IOL 6; Big Board Rank: 75)
76.) Tyler Smith; IOL/OT Tulsa (IOL 7: Big Board Rank: 48)
This will probably be the lowest you see Smith ranked anywhere. He has youth and physicality on his side but he’s going to take a few years to develop. Outside of a few organizations he could land with (Philadelphia comes to mind), I’m not sure they’ll have the patience to develop him, especially if he gets selected in the first or second round.
TIER 6
77.) Cam Taylor-Britt; CB Nebraska (CB 9; Big Board Rank: 91)
78.) Marcus Jones; CB Houston (CB 10; Big Board Rank: 95)
79.) Tariq Woolen; CB UTSA (CB 11; Big Board Rank: 80)
80.) Coby Bryant; CB Cincinnati (CB 12; Big Board Rank: 94)
This group features three elite athletes and one hyper-productive tape guy (Bryant). The most fun player from this group is Jones, who should be the best return man in the NFL as soon as he gets in the league.
81.) Damone Clark; LB LSU (LB 9; Big Board Rank: 106)
Clark won’t contribute his rookie year after tearing his Achilles but once he gets to day three, the risk is gone. If he gets to round four, I’d have no qualms about taking him.
82.) Marquis Hayes; IOL Oklahoma (IOL 8; Big Board Rank: 132)
83.) Cameron Jurgens; IOL Nebraska (IOL 9; Big Board Rank: 92)
84.) Jamaree Salyer; IOL Georgia (IOL 10; Big Board Rank: 84)
85.) Luke Goedke; IOL Central Michigan (IOL 11; Big Board Rank: 77)
86.) Luke Fortner; IOL Kentucky (IOL 12; Big Board Rank: 96)
87.) Ed Ingram; IOL LSU (IOL 13; Big Board Rank: 108)
I’m higher on this group than most but in this draft if I can get a solid starter in round three that’s a win. At guard or center you don’t need pro-bowl caliber play to win-you just can’t be a liability. All six of these players should be able to provide that for their teams at the next level.
88.) Wan’Dale Robinson; WR Kentucky (WR 15; Big Board Rank: 100)
89.) Calvin Austin III; WR Memphis (WR 16; Big Board Rank: 98)
90.) Bryan Cook; S Cincinnati (S 7; Big Board Rank: 70)
91.) Jelani Woods; TE Virginia (TE 1; Big Board Rank: 101)
92.) Greg Dulcich; TE UCLA (TE 2: Big Board Rank: 61)
93.) Trey McBride; TE Colorado State (TE 3: Big Board Rank: 52)
This is not a good year for tight ends. More so than any other position, if you aren’t an absolute special athlete (see Kyle Pitts last year), your impact at the next level is going to be minimal. That’s why I’d take a flyer on Woods, who had one of the best testing scores ever for a tight end, before someone like McBride, who’s just fine athletically.
94.) Nicholas Petit-Frere (OT 7; Big Board Rank: 87)
95.) Abraham Lucas; OT Washington State (OT 8; Big Board Rank: 83)
96.) Sam Williams; Edge Ole Miss (Edge 16; Big Board Rank: 82)
97.) Neil Farrell; IDL LSU (IDL 7; Big Board Rank: 138)
98.) Kyren Williams; RB Notre Dame (RB 3; Big Board Rank: 126)
99.) Derion Kendrick; CB Georgia (CB 13; Big Board Rank: 178)
100.) Justyn Ross; WR Clemson (WR 17; Big Board Rank 104)
Our last two players from this draft were teammates on Clemson’s 2019 national title team. After getting dismissed from Clemson last year, Kendrick transferred to Georgia and had an up-and-down season. He followed that up with terrible testing numbers, which has moved him down most team’s draft boards. Still, Kendrick was a productive player for two big time programs and I think he can find a way to contribute at the next level.
As for Ross, he looked like he was on his way to becoming a top ten pick before a neck injury derailed his college career. He came back this year and showed flashes of his old self despite shoddy quarterback play all season. I’m not sure Ross’ medical condition leads to a long career but his talent is undeniable and he deserves a day three flyer.